The Chicago White Sox host the Cleveland Guardians on July 11, 2025. First pitch from Rate Field is scheduled for 3:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on CLEG.
Read our White Sox vs Guardians prediction and MLB pick below.
My Guardians vs White Sox Prediction
My Guardians vs White Sox best bet is on Chicago F5 ML. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs White Sox Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
Guardians vs White Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Logan Allen (CLE) | Stat | RHP Shane Smith (CWS) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-7 | W-L | 3-7 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 4.07 / 4.46 | ERA / xERA | 4.20 / 4.25 |
| 4.44 / 4.70 | FIP / xFIP | 4.04 / 4.51 |
| 1.43 | WHIP | 1.33 |
| 8.0% | K-BB% | 10.7% |
| 44.2% | GB% | 41.5% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 96 | Location+ | 98 |
Tanner McGrath’s Guardians vs White Sox Preview
While White Sox starting pitcher Shane Smith was overvalued for most of the year, all the negative regression he was owed has come across his past four starts (15 ⅓ IP, 21 ER, 22 H, 10 BB, 12 K). His earned run indicators now align with his expected stats, and I believe he could be due for a bounce-back performance after a string of overdue-but-still-brutal outings.
Friday’s Game 1 could be a good spot for that bounce-back start.
The Guardians rank dead last among MLB lineups in wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past month, posting a measly 61 behind a .192/.255/.326/.580 slash line. They’re 12-22 since June 1, mainly because they’re averaging just three runs per game.
The typically excellent Jose Ramirez hasn’t been seeing the ball at his typically elite level lately (88 wRC+ over the past month), while Steven Kwan isn’t getting on base enough (.302 OBP over the past month). Carlos Santana and Bo Naylor have been useless lately, and the Lane Thomas injury doesn’t help.
I rate Guardians starting pitcher Logan Thomas equally to Smith. They’re two guys with underwhelming stuff, but both are ultimately crafty enough to be MLB-average arms.
However, the White Sox have been an above-average lineup against southpaws over the past month, posting a shocking 106 wRC+. Michael Taylor, Luis Robert Jr., Andrew Benintendi and Edgar Quero have been crushing left-handed pitching lately.
Therefore, I want to take a shot with the 31-62 White Sox.
However, the Guardians have a monumental bullpen advantage — Cleveland boasts a top-five bullpen.
So, I’m going to take the White Sox F5 ML, hoping that Smith bounces back against a slumping lineup while Chicago’s bats stay hot against the left side.
I might take an additional shot on the Over. Our Action PRO model projects 9.34 runs for the game, which makes sense if the White Sox can smack around Allen while the Guardians smack around Chicago's lifeless bullpen.
Pick: White Sox F5 ML (-105, BetMGM) | Over 9 (+100, BetMGM)
