Guardians vs White Sox Prediction, Pick, Odds for Friday’s Game 1 — July 11

Guardians vs White Sox Prediction, Pick, Odds for Friday’s Game 1 — July 11 article feature image
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The Chicago White Sox host the Cleveland Guardians on July 11, 2025. First pitch from Rate Field is scheduled for 3:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on CLEG.

Read our White Sox vs Guardians prediction and MLB pick below.

Quickslip

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My Guardians vs White Sox Prediction

  • Guardians vs White Sox picks: White Sox F5 ML (-105, BetMGM) | Over 9 (+100, BetMGM)

My Guardians vs White Sox best bet is on Chicago F5 ML. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.


Guardians vs White Sox Odds

Guardians Logo
July 11, 2025
3:10 p.m. EDT
CLEG
White Sox Logo
Guardians Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-1.5
+135
8.5
-110o / -110u
-130
White Sox Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+1.5
-160
8.5
-110o / -110u
+110
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
BetMGM Logo

Guardians vs White Sox Projected Starting Pitchers

LHP Logan Allen (CLE)StatRHP Shane Smith (CWS)
5-7W-L3-7
0.7fWAR (FanGraphs)1.2
4.07 / 4.46ERA / xERA4.20 / 4.25
4.44 / 4.70FIP / xFIP4.04 / 4.51
1.43WHIP1.33
8.0%K-BB%10.7%
44.2%GB%41.5%
93Stuff+96
96Location+98

Tanner McGrath’s Guardians vs White Sox Preview

While White Sox starting pitcher Shane Smith was overvalued for most of the year, all the negative regression he was owed has come across his past four starts (15 ⅓ IP, 21 ER, 22 H, 10 BB, 12 K). His earned run indicators now align with his expected stats, and I believe he could be due for a bounce-back performance after a string of overdue-but-still-brutal outings.

Friday’s Game 1 could be a good spot for that bounce-back start.

The Guardians rank dead last among MLB lineups in wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past month, posting a measly 61 behind a .192/.255/.326/.580 slash line. They’re 12-22 since June 1, mainly because they’re averaging just three runs per game.

The typically excellent Jose Ramirez hasn’t been seeing the ball at his typically elite level lately (88 wRC+ over the past month), while Steven Kwan isn’t getting on base enough (.302 OBP over the past month). Carlos Santana and Bo Naylor have been useless lately, and the Lane Thomas injury doesn’t help.

I rate Guardians starting pitcher Logan Thomas equally to Smith. They’re two guys with underwhelming stuff, but both are ultimately crafty enough to be MLB-average arms.

However, the White Sox have been an above-average lineup against southpaws over the past month, posting a shocking 106 wRC+. Michael Taylor, Luis Robert Jr., Andrew Benintendi and Edgar Quero have been crushing left-handed pitching lately.

Therefore, I want to take a shot with the 31-62 White Sox.

However, the Guardians have a monumental bullpen advantage — Cleveland boasts a top-five bullpen.

So, I’m going to take the White Sox F5 ML, hoping that Smith bounces back against a slumping lineup while Chicago’s bats stay hot against the left side.

I might take an additional shot on the Over. Our Action PRO model projects 9.34 runs for the game, which makes sense if the White Sox can smack around Allen while the Guardians smack around Chicago's lifeless bullpen.

Pick: White Sox F5 ML (-105, BetMGM) | Over 9 (+100, BetMGM)


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About the Author
Tanner McGrath covers college basketball, college football and Major League Baseball at Action Network. He is a contributor to Payoff Pitch, Action Network’s Major League Baseball betting podcast. He's been working in the space for more than five years with past journalism experience in Canadian collegiate sports, finance and economics. He has an obsession with America East basketball, betting the Miami Marlins and sweating out home underdogs.

Follow Tanner McGrath @tannerstruth on Twitter/X.

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