Brewers vs. Cubs Odds, Betting Picks | MLB Prediction for Monday, July 3

Brewers vs. Cubs Odds, Betting Picks | MLB Prediction for Monday, July 3 article feature image

Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Christian Yelich of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Brewers vs. Cubs Odds

Monday, July 3
2:10 p.m. ET
Brewers Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-115 / -105
Cubs Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-115 / -105
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

The first installment of this four-game NL Central series between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Chicago Cubs gets underway on Monday.

These clubs enter this game in opposite form, with first-place Milwaukee winning seven of its past 10 games and fourth-place Chicago losing six of its past 10. Will the Brewers continue their winning ways, or can the Cubs turn things around?

Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Brewers vs. Cubs preview, betting pick and prediction.

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Chicago Cubs

Slated to take the mound for the Cubs is left-hander Drew Smyly, who could be a good candidate to back. Through 16 starts, Smyly is 7-5 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.

While those aren't the strongest surface-level stats, his underlying metrics suggest positive regression is looming. Currently, he ranks in the 64th percentile or higher in Average Exit Velocity, HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA and Barrel%.

Additionally, Smyly does a good job of making opposing hitters chase pitches, ranking in the 70th percentile in that department. Possessing a mere three-pitch arsenal, he relies heavily on a curveball he throws 49.1% of the time.

Milwaukee Brewers

While the Brewers sit atop the division (tied with the Reds), it is certainly not because of their hitting. Entering Monday, Milwaukee ranks 24th or lower in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG and OPS.

Batting third for the Crew is outfielder Christian Yelich, who enters this contest in great form. With that said, now is the time to sell high, at least in the strikeout department.

This season, Yelich ranks in the 47th percentile or lower in both K% and Whiff%. In fact, he has struck out at least once in 12 of his past 15 games.

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Brewers vs. Cubs Pick

I mentioned earlier how Smyly relies heavily on his curveball. That's important because the curveball is the pitch Yelich has always struggled with the most.

Against the curve this season, Yelich has a mere .209 xBA, .320 xSLG and .255 xwOBA. Furthermore, he possesses a terrible 34.3 K% and 41.9 Whiff% against that pitch.

Therefore, you will not be shocked to learn that Yelich has struck out three times in five career at-bats against Smyly.

At +330, it is worth taking a shot that he will do so once again to begin this ballgame.

Pick: Christian Yelich 1st Plate Appearance Result – Strikeout (+330 on DraftKings

Play down to +300 — 0.5 units.

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