Cubs vs Mets Odds, Prediction | Jameson Taillon Prop Pick

Here's everything you need to know about the Cubs vs Mets series opener on Monday, April 29.

Cubs vs Mets odds have New York as a -146 favorite on the moneyline, while the over/under is set at 7.5. Chicago will hand the ball to right-handed starter Jameson Taillon, and I'm looking at his strikeout prop market for my Cubs vs Mets prediction.

Let's dive into how I am fading Taillon as I make a Cubs vs Mets pick.

Taillon has gotten off to a dominant start in 2024, posting a 2-0 record with a 1.69 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through his first two starts. His underlying metrics suggest that regression is unlikely, considering that he ranks in the 71st percentile or higher in xERA, xBA and Barrel%.

However, there is one thing the right-hander doesn't do well, and that is rack up strikeouts. Currently, he ranks in the 32nd percentile or lower in Chase Rate, Whiff Rate and Strikeout Rate.

This trend is nothing new or surprising for those who have followed Taillon over the past couple of seasons as he has finished in the 35th percentile or lower in Strikeout Rate in both 2023 and 2022. You can find his strikeout prop for this game at 4.5 with the under returning +100 at BetMGM, a line that Taillon has failed to surpass in each of his two outings this year.

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New York has gotten off to a solid start this season with the lineup seeing the ball well. Entering this series, the Mets rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.

With that said, the thing this lineup does best is avoid striking out. This season, they rank sixth in Strikeout Rate and 10th when isolating those numbers against right-handed pitching.

Looking at New York's projected starting lineup for Monday, eight of its nine hitters boast a Strikeout Rate below 22% this year. The only hitter above that number is J.D. Martinez, who only possesses nine plate appearances on the campaign.

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New York is a tough lineup to mow down, and if Taillon is chased early, then his strikeout prop is going to be difficult to surpass. However, I really like this prop because even if Taillon throws a gem, which is certainly possible, he still is the type of pitcher who is unlikely to rack up a bunch of strikeouts along the way.

That fact is likely to be emphasized against the Mets, a team that Logan Webb only struck out four times despite tossing eight scoreless frames against. It doesn't get much better than that, and Webb still only recorded four strikeouts, so a similar result could be in store for Taillon.

In fact, three of the past five starting to pitchers to face New York have gone under this total.

Pick: Jameson Taillon Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100 at BetMGM | Play to -105)