Cubs vs Padres Odds, Prediction & Pick: Target Wednesday’s Over/Under
Via Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images. Pictured: Hayden Wesneski #19 of the Chicago Cubs throws a pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers at Wrigley Field on May 03, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois.
Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+102 | 7.5 -117o / -105u | +1.5 -175 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-121 | 7.5 -117o / -105u | -1.5 +140 |
The latest Cubs vs Padres odds for Wednesday's contest at Wrigley Field have the Padres installed as -126 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under of 8.5 (-115o / -105u). For my Cubs vs Padres pick, I will be looking at the total.
Let's dive into my MLB betting preview and get into my Cubs vs Padres prediction for Wednesday, May 8.
After putting together spectacular performances out of the bullpen over the past couple of seasons, right-hander Hayden Wesneski has been moved into the starting rotation and is tearing it up. Through four appearances on the mound this season, he is 2-0 with a nearly flawless 0.54 ERA and 0.72 WHIP.
There were eight or fewer total runs scored in three of those four outings. Wesneski's underlying metrics are somehow just as dominant as he ranks in the 91st percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, Average Exit Velocity and Hard-hit rate.
This success is likely to continue against San Diego, a team whom Wesneski is 1-0 against in his career with a 1.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. There were seven total runs scored in that outing.
However, the right-hander may not get much run support, either. Through 55 career plate appearances against right-hander Dylan Cease, who will take the mound for the Padres, this current Chicago lineup possesses a fade-worthy .087 BA, .174 SLG and .207 wOBA.
Speaking of Cease, he is also off to a tremendous start to the campaign. Through his first seven starts, the righty is 4-2 with a stellar 2.55 ERA and 0.80 WHIP.
Like Wesneski, Cease's underlying metrics are excellent as he ranks in the 66th percentile in xERA and 81st percentile in xBA. This success is likely to continue against the Cubs, a team he is 3-0 against over the past four meetings with a tremendous 1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
The under at 8.5 seems almost too be good to be true given all of those aforementioned variables. The reason for this high total is that San Diego's lineup has been raking this season, and that is a genuine concern.
Cubs vs. Padres
Betting Pick & Prediction
With that said, Wesneski has looked so incredibly dominant thus far, and there isn't any reason to believe he won't cool down these San Diego bats on Wednesday. This sentiment is emphasized with his performance in his lone career start against the Padres, a game in which he allowed just one run in five innings of work.
Both starting pitchers have been dominant this season, and each of their analytics suggest that regression is not a major concern. Neither bullpen has been great, but neither has been particularly poor, either.
That just leaves us with the weather, which is often a major point of conversation at Wrigley. However, that is in our favor as well as the forecast calls for winds blowing in from right field.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-104 at FanDuel · Play to -110)
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