Cubs vs Phillies Odds, Prediction: Value on Visitor?
Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Dansby Swanson and Christopher Morel
Cubs vs Phillies Odds
-122 / +102
-122 / +102
The Chicago Cubs come into this series on quite a skid. They are 2-8 over their last 10 and are fresh off being swept by the Houston Astros. However, their hosts have not been at their best either, as the Philadelphia Phillies come into this one having lost four games in a row, which includes getting swept by the San Francisco Giants.
Marcus Stroman will attempt to be the stopper for the Cubs. Chicago’s ace was dealing to start the year but has had a couple of rough outings that have deflated his numbers.
Opposing him for the Phillies will be Ranger Suarez. Suarez made his season debut in the unfriendly confines of Coors Field his last time out and faired decently considering all the factors.
Which of these two starters will get their team the victory each desperately needs? Let’s dive in to find out.
The Cubs’ recent cold stretch has not been the fault of their offense. They enter with the fourth-highest team batting average in the majors and have scored four or more runs in six of their last 10 games.
Since their pitching is bound to come around, all the bats have to do is stay hot. They’ll have an excellent opportunity to do so against Suarez.
The Cubs have been one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitching. They rank fourth in wRC+ and third in wOBA against them this season.
Those rankings have also come with a ton of power, as they are fourth in ISO as well. One guy you always have to keep an eye on with a lefty on the mound is Patrick Wisdom, as he’s supplied a lot of that power against lefties.
The defending National League champs have not gotten off to the start Philly faithful had hoped for, as they are three games under .500 entering this matchup. Although, it’s hard to say this is the same team as they’ve had significant injuries to overcome. On top of that, their pitching staff boasts the eighth-highest ERA in the majors.
However, despite all of that, this lineup has been productive. They have the seventh-highest team batting average and are in the top 15 in wRC+ and wOBA. Unfortunately, they are due for quite a bit of regression, and it may start tonight.
The Phillies have an xBA of .243, and that stems from being in the bottom third of the league in average exit velocity. They have not been able to make hard contact consistently, and they may have trouble doing so again with Stroman on the mound.
Stroman has become one of the game’s best groundball artists, with a groundball rate 14 percent higher than the league average. In addition, he’s been elite at missing barrels this season, as his barrel rate sits in the 87th percentile, which is also the best rate of his career.
Stroman also got shelled his last time out and is due for a much better outing. So it’s clear the Phillies and Stroman are trending in opposite directions for this matchup.
Cubs vs Phillies Betting Pick
The Fightin’ Phils have been great in front of their home crowd, as 11 of their 20 wins have come at Citizens Bank Park. But they have a lot going against them in this matchup.
Chicago’s lineup should hit Suarez hard, as they’ve proven on multiple occasions how potent they can be against lefties. Conversely, the Phillies have been very fortunate and are not in a great spot against an elite sinkerballer in Stroman.
Back the Cubs here to take the series opener.
Pick: Cubs ML (+108)
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