MLB Odds & Picks for Cubs vs. Phillies: Trust Zack Wheeler & Philadelphia
Photo by Joe Puetz/Getty Images. Pictured: Zack Wheeler (Phillies)
- After a 15-2 loss on Friday night, the Phillies look to bounce back against the Cubs at home on Saturday.
- Philadelphia has a strong shot at doing so because Zack Wheeler is on the mound vs. Marcus Stroman.
- Jules Posner dives into this matchup and offers up his reasoning on his best bet.
Cubs vs. Phillies Odds
|Time||6:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
On Friday night, the Chicago Cubs absolutely dominated the Philadelphia Phillies to open up their second half, posting a 15-2 road victory.
The Phillies turn to their ace, Zack Wheeler, to get them back in the win column on Saturday, and he’ll be facing off against Marcus Stroman, who looks to find some consistency in the second half.
The Cubs have struggled all season, and despite the big win Friday night, they’re still 2-8 over their last 10 games.
Meanwhile, the Phillies are looking to keep pace in the NL Wild Card race by getting back in the win column Saturday night.
Can Stroman Earn a Quality Start for Cubs?
Stroman’s Cubs debut season has been relatively lackluster, as he’s been injured often and has been inconsistent when healthy.
However, he’s fared much better on the road this season than at home. Over 33 road innings, he’s posted a 2.45 ERA with a 3.02 FIP.
On the other hand, he’s only pitched about four innings in each of his last two starts.
The Cubs’ offense has actually been fairly consistent this season on the road. Over the past couple of weeks, they’ve posted a 110 team wRC+ on the road against RHP, which is slightly above league average.
Starting pitching has been the Cubs’ main issue all season, but their bullpen has also gradually gotten worse over the span of the year.
This probably has more to due with the starting staff’s struggles than the arm talent in the bullpen, though. Consistently being overextended has probably done the most damage to an otherwise decent unit.
Phillies’ Offense Not in Strong Form
Despite the Cubs’ relative successes against RHP on the road this season, they’ll have their hands full with Wheeler.
Wheeler has been exceptional all season, but he’s been particularly dominant at home. Over 55 2/3 innings, he’s posted a 1.62 ERA with a 2.38 FIP. This has been par for the course for him as a member of the Phillies.
On the other side, the Phillies’ offense has been struggling of late. Even though they have managed to stay afloat in the NL Wild Card picture without Bryce Harper, they’re starting to experience some regression without the 2021 MVP.
Over the past two weeks, they’ve posted a 89 team wRC+ at home against RHP, and considering Stroman’s success on the road this season, runs might be tough to come by.
While the run total is set at a reasonable 7.5, the best value on the board seems to be the Phillies runline. It’s Wheeler day, and considering the Cubs’ bullpen issues — paired with Stroman’s inability to work deep into games — the Phillies should have a shot at covering the spread Saturday night.
Some books still have the Phillies runline at +125, but it should be taken as long as it’s in plus money.
Pick: Phillies RL
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