MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Cubs vs. Rockies Saturday Betting Preview (April 16)

Cubs vs. Rockies Odds

Individual player success stories can take center stage in matchups of two teams not many are counting on to make the playoffs this year. That's what we have here as the Colorado Rockies host the Chicago Cubs in the second game of a three-game series on Saturday.

Mark Leiter Jr. will take the mound for the Cubs. It will be his first MLB appearance since 2018 and his first start in the majors since 2017. Leiter Jr. missed all of the 2019 and 2020 seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery and spent last year at Triple-A, where he had a 3.77 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 145:31 SO:BB.

He'll face Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela, who signed a five-year, $50 million extension this past offseason.

Leiter Has Tough Assignment for Cubs

While it is a great story to see players like Leiter Jr. return from terrible injuries that they have to work through for years, he ultimately has the deck stacked against him by making his return against the Rockies at Coors Field. The over/under is 12 in this game for a few reasons, but mostly because sportsbooks don't believe in Leiter Jr. in this spot and it's difficult to blame them.

Marcus Stroman, an accomplished veteran starter, struggled and allowed five earned runs in four innings of work Friday night. Leiter Jr. will certainly have his work cut out for him here, especially with first baseman C.J. Cron, who already has three home runs this season.

Rockies Have Pitching Edge

Senzatela was a bit of a mixed bag in his first start of the season. Facing the Dodgers, he allowed 10 base runners in 3 1/3 innings and four runs but only one was earned. I wouldn't trust him to pitch well against the Dodgers, but the Rockies signed Senzatela to that contract this offseason because he pitches well at Coors Field.

Last year he had a 3.97 ERA in 15 starts at home compared to 5.05 in 13 starts on the road. The Cubs lineup doesn't scare opponents like the Dodgers lineup does and Senzatela should fare better in this contest as he tends to do when pitching at home.

Cubs-Rockies Pick

While it's great to root for individual player success stories in sports, I'm having a tough time with this one for Leiter Jr. He's made it back to the majors and should go on to have an interesting season, but this isn't exactly the time or place to trust him to get the job done.

I'm backing the team with the better lineup, pitcher and home field advantage and that's the Rockies. I would bet this to -140.

Pick: Rockies ML -138