Saturday MLB Props, PrizePicks Plays: Buy Yu Darvish vs. Dodgers; Fade Orioles vs. Noah Syndergaard (April 23)
Ron Jenkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Noah Syndergaard
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Enter: PrizePicks.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on today’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s slate in Major League Baseball.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
MLB PrizePicks Plays for Saturday, April 23rd
Cedric Mullins Hitter Fantasy Score Under 4.5
The AL East's fourth-place Baltimore Orioles look for their second-straight win against the AL West's first-place Los Angeles Angels. This task, however, may be difficult as the Orioles are set to hit against right-hander Noah Syndergaard.
Syndergaard has had a great start to his campaign as he is 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.794 WHIP. His metrics also suggest that regression is not coming anytime soon as Syndergaard boasts a .221 xwOBA, .195 xBA, and .227 xSLG.
Against right-handers this season, Mullins has posted a mere .167 BA, .231 OBP and .375 SLG. Mullins has gone under this fantasy score total in two of his last three games and should be a good fade candidate in this matchup.
Ryan Mountcastle Hitter Fantasy Score Under 4.5
Another Orioles batter I am fading in this matchup is Ryan Mountcastle. Against right-handed pitchers this season, Mountcastle possesses a .233 BA, .258 OBP and .333 SLG.
Mountcastle's splits have not been very good since 2020, especially when facing right-handers and when playing on the road. Against right-handers since 2020, Mountcastle possesses a .262 BA, .317 OBP and .473 SLG.
Playing on the road since 2020, Mountcastle has posted a .257 BA, .316 OBP and .431 SLG.
Yu Darvish Pitcher Fantasy Score Over 23.5
We have the second game of this NL West series as the fourth-place San Diego Padres host the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers. Right-hander Yu Darvish is projected to take the mound for the Padres and will look to keep it going following his good performance against the Braves.
Darvish's numbers are wildly inflated to start the year because of his horrible outing against the Giants, a game in which he allowed nine runs on eight hits through 1 2/3 innings. Outside of that one uncharacteristic outing, Darvish has been great as he has only allowed one run on four hits through his other 12 2/3 innings.
He has a good matchup against the Dodgers in this game, a team he has done great against in his career. Through 121 career plate appearances against Darvish, this current Dodgers lineup possesses a mere .173 BA, .337 SLG and .271 wOBA.
Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 Runs + RBIs
We have the second game of this NL East series as the second-place Atlanta Braves host the fourth-place Miami Marlins. Right-handed pitcher Elieser Hernandez is projected to take the mound for Miami and may provide some difficulty for Atlanta's lineup.
Albies has struggled in his 15 career plate appearances against Hernandez, posting a mere .143 BA, .286 SLG and .207 wOBA. Additionally, Albies has gone under this "Runs + RBIs" total in three of his last five games.
Against right-handers this season, Albies possesses a .179 BA, .298 OBP, and .436 SLG.
Austin Riley Hitter Fantasy Score Under 7.5
Another Braves batter I am fading in this matchup is Austin Riley, a guy who has not had success in his small sample size against Hernandez. Through five plate appearances against Hernandez, Riley is just 1-for-5 with a single and three strikeouts.
Riley has gone under this fantasy score total in four of his last seven games and could be in a good position to go under in this matchup as well. While Riley does have good numbers this season against right-handers, they are still lower than his splits against left-handed pitchers and there is some value in this number at such a high total.
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