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Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds & Picks: Betting Value on Friday’s Over/Under

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds & Picks: Betting Value on Friday’s Over/Under article feature image
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Norm Hall/Getty Images. Pictured: Daulton Varsho and Pavin Smith

  • The Diamondbacks travel to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies for the first time this season.
  • Zac Gallen takes the mound for Arizona and Kyle Gibson will get the ball for Philadelphia.
  • Tony Sartori previews the game and shares his best bet below.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds

Diamondbacks Odds +120
Phillies Odds -145
Over/Under 8.5
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the first matchup of this three-game series as the NL East‘s Philadelphia Phillies host the NL West‘s Arizona Diamondbacks. This is the first meeting between these two clubs this season.

Will we get a high-scoring affair between these two teams, or will we get a pitching duel between Zac Gallen and Kyle Gibson?

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Arizona Diamondbacks: Offense Heating Up

The Arizona Diamondbacks enter this contest with many high-scoring games under their belt as there have been eight or more runs scored in  16 of their past 24 contests (67%). I expect this trend to continue with right-hander Zac Gallen projected to take the mound for Arizona.

While Gallen began the season incredibly strong, he has started to come back down to earth and has given up 10 earned runs on 19 hits over his past 17 innings pitched. Eight or more runs were scored in two of those three games.

Following Gallen is one of the worst bullpens in the league. Since May 1st, the Diamondbacks’ relief pitching ranks 28th in the league in ERA, 29th in BA, 28th in SLG and 28th in wOBA.

However, this Arizona pitching staff should get plenty of run support as the Diamondbacks are slated to go against right-hander Kyle Gibson. Since the beginning of May, the Diamondbacks rank first in the league in SLG, sixth in OPS and sixth in wOBA when facing right-handers on the road.

Through 43 career plate appearances against Gibson, this current Diamondbacks lineup possesses a .282 xBA, .369 xSLG, and .293 xwOBA.

Philadelphia Phillies: Bats Should Provide Support for Gibson

Like Arizona, the Philadelphia Phillies have been involved in many high-scoring games recently. There have been eight or more runs scored in 14 of their past 16 contests (88%). As I mentioned above, right-hander Kyle Gibson is slated to take the mound for the Phillies.

Through 11 starts this season, Kyle Gibson is 3-2 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.273 WHIP. There have been eight or more runs scored in six of his past nine outings (67%).

Following Gibson is as average of a bullpen as you can find. Since May 1st, the Phillies’ relief pitching ranks 14th in the league in ERA, 16th in BA and 14th in wOBA.

This Philadelphia pitching staff should get plenty of run support as the Phillies are slated to go against right-hander Zac Gallen. Since the beginning of May, the Phillies rank 10th in the league in BA, eighth in SLG, 12th in OPS and 14th in wOBA when facing right-handed pitchers.

Diamondbacks-Phillies Pick

We are getting incredible value on this total due to Zac Gallen’s numbers this season. That being said, he has shown some regression over his past few starts and is followed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

Since the beginning of May, both of these lineups have hit right-handed pitchers well. With the trends pointing to the over for each team, I am comfortable in taking the number despite some of Gallen’s dominant performances this season.

Pick: Diamondbacks/Phillies o8 (-120) | Play up to (-130)

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