Diamondbacks vs White Sox Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Wednesday, September 27
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Carroll #7 of the Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks vs. White Sox Odds
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago White Sox will matchup in the second game of the series on Wednesday.
It looks like Luis Patiño will open for Chicago. The Sox will predominantly be using their bullpen, as Touki Toussaint goes for them on Thursday and Jesse Scholtens has landed on the injured list.
The Diamondbacks will be throwing Brandon Pfaadt. He may have been a top prospect, but Pfaadt has been up and down all season. He has not completely shown the consistency the D'backs would need in the playoffs.
Both of these teams have struggled at the dish off of right-handed pitching. That being said, Arizona has the depth the White Sox do not in the batting order. With that in place, the D'backs should go over their team total.
Pfaadt has a 5.59 ERA this month over 19 1/3 innings pitched. On the season, his ground-ball rate is abysmal at only 32.5%. Luckily for him, he is facing a team that hits a ton of grounders. On the other hand, Pfaadt still owns a 12% Barrel rate, 90.3 mph Average Exit Velocity and 44.5% hard-hit rate. His strikeout rate is 21.6% and his walk rate is 6.5%.
The Snakes have an 86 wRC+ and .680 OPS this month off of righties with a 22.7% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate. They do have six bats above a .315 xwOBA, and although this may not seem like much, this is more than enough depth to get through the White Sox starting pitcher and their weaker-than-average bullpen.
In relief, Arizona has not been strong, either. The Diamondbacks have a 4.59 xFIP and 20.1% strikeout rate with an 8.8% walk rate. They only have three arms below the 4.00 xFIP mark, so this is not reliable. Their steep moneyline is not worth the play.
Patiño has a 2.77 ERA over 13 innings pitched this season for the White Sox. He is only striking out 19% of batters while walking 15.2% of them. Even though the Diamondbacks do not walk much, this will not help here. He is not as large of an ingredient in this bet, as he will not throw more than three innings anyway.
The Sox have an awful lineup, especially against right-handers. They have a 76 wRC+ and .652 OPS. Their walk rate is 5.7% and their strikeout rate is 21.2%. They also lost Luis Robert Jr. through the end of the season, who encompassed much of the success in this offense. Chicago has only had three hitters above a .315 xwOBA this month off of righties, so backing the Sox on the moneyline is not wise.
Sure, Pfaadt has been weak, but he could excel against a lineup that just cannot put runs together.
Chicago also somehow has a worse relief staff than the D'backs. The White Sox have a 5.12 xFIP this month with a 21.1% strikeout rate and 13.6% walk rate. If Patiño is the opener, this game looks like the D'backs will be walking every other batter. In addition, the White Sox only have two arms below a 4.00 xFIP this month. When the opener exits the game, this leaves plenty of opportunities for Arizona to score.
Diamondbacks vs. White Sox
Betting Pick & Prediction
Simply put, the White Sox are not a reliable bet with a horrible bullpen and a Luis Robert Jr.-less batting order.
Brandon Pfaadt and the D'backs bullpen are not reliable either, but this Arizona lineup can string together baserunners and go over the team total.
This is the bet to take, and it can be played to over 5. Arizona needs this game desperately while the White Sox are limping to the finish line.