Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Player Props | NLDS Game 3 Odds, Picks for Brandon Pfaadt, Lance Lynn (Wednesday, October 11)
Quinn Harris/Getty Images. Pictured: Brandon Pfaadt
Not many people would have picked the Arizona Diamondbacks to be this year's Cinderella in the MLB playoffs, but here we are. The Snakes sit just one win away from clinching a spot in the NLCS after clobbering the Dodgers' top two starters.
Rookie Brandon Pfaadt will get the ball against a team that has had his number this season, but the Dodgers are forced to hand the ball to a regressed version of Lance Lynn.
The outcome of this game is a question mark, but there are some angles in the player prop market with much more predictable outcomes.
Let's dive into the top three player props for Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Game 3.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Game 3 Player Props
Brandon Pfaadt may not have made it out of the third inning against Milwaukee in his first career postseason start, but he did manage to up his strikeout streak. Incredibly, Pfaadt has recorded at least four strikeouts in 12 consecutive starts heading into this outing.
Two of those starts in that streak came against the Los Angeles Dodgers. While those totals came in rough outings for Pfaadt, the Diamondbacks rookie is due for some positive regression, and if he does turn it around tonight, we can expect punchouts to be a big reason why.
Overall, Pfaadt has gone over this total in 75% of his starts, which gives us implied odds of -300. While we have many things in our favor for this over, the key thing to watch is Pfaadt's length in this outing.
If he can go four innings, the probability of this coming in will be much closer to the implied probability.
Pick: Brandon Pfaadt Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-115 at bet365)
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We go from one massive edge to another. This is perhaps the biggest edge we can have in terms of implied probability.
For this over to cash, we need Lance Lynn to go at least four innings. Fortunately for us, Lynn has not gone fewer than four innings in a start in the last two seasons. Yes, he is 53 for 53.
Now, we did see Dave Roberts have a very quick hook in the first two games of this series, but that's much due to poor performance, as he got a combined six outs from Clayton Kershaw and Bobby Miller.
The bullpen has been overused in the first two games, and the Dodgers need length out of Lynn in a must-win matchup. We should see him get the opportunity to keep his team in the game for the first two times through the order, and it would certainly help if he got some run support as well.
Pick: Lance Lynn Over 11.5 Outs Recorded (-102 at FanDuel)
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Just Dingers Martinez had a career revival in L.A. this season. The 36-year-old DH hit .271 with 33 homers and 103 RBI. That run production stems from elite contact metrics, as he finished in the top 2% of the majors in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate.
The Dodgers' bats are bound to wake up in this game, and Martinez has been right in the middle of all the run production this season. He drove in a run in 48% of games played this season.
That hit rate gives us implied odds of +108, which is a significant line value at the current market price.
Pick: J.D. Martinez Over 0.5 RBI (+160 at bet365)
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