Dodgers vs. Rockies MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Target Colorado’s Team Total Against Anderson (Thursday, July 28)
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Charlie Blackmon #19 of the Colorado Rockies.
- The Rockies and Dodgers reprise their regular-season series on Thursday night as Colorado hosts LA in Denver.
- Colorado boasts a 4-2 record against Los Angeles when playing at home, but can you trust Rockies starting pitcher Jose Urena to keep LA at bay?
- MLB betting analyst Alex Hinton previews Thursday's MLB matchup, including updated odds, picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Rockies at 8:40 p.m. ET.
Dodgers vs. Rockies Odds
|Over/Under||12 (-105 / -115)|
|Time||8:40 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Los Angeles Dodgers began the second half with a four-game sweep of the arch rival San Francisco Giants.
Then, LA welcomed the lowly Washington Nationals to town to complete the team’s seven-game home stand out of the break. Surprisingly, the Dodgers were thoroughly outplayed in the first two games in the series and were outscored 12-3 in the process. The Dodgers did take the finale with a 7-1 victory yesterday afternoon.
Next on the docket is a trip to Denver to battle the Colorado Rockies.
The Rockies won in walk-off fashion yesterday on a two-run single by catcher Elias Diaz to give the team a 6-5 win over the Chicago White Sox. The Rockies split the two-game series with the White Sox and have won two out of three overall.
The home team has dominated the regular-season series between Colorado and Los Angeles. The Rockies have won four of the six games in Colorado, while the Dodgers swept the lone three-game series in LA.
Will the Rockies offense give the team a chance to pull out another home win over the Dodgers on Thursday?
Tyler Anderson will get the start for the Dodgers, and he is enjoying a career year in his age-32 season, boasting a 10-1 record with a 2.79 ERA and 3.04 xERA. He leads LA in innings pitched and has 87 strikeouts in 103.1 innings.
Anderson is not overpowering with a low-90s fastball, changeup, and cutter mix. However, he does not give up a lot of hard contact. He ranks in the 85th percentile in Barrel Percentage, 92nd percentile in Average Exit Velocity and 95th percentile in Hard Hit Percentage.
Nevertheless, Anderson struggled a bit in his last outing in Colorado when he allowed 10 hits and four earned runs in six innings of work. The Rockies handed him his lone losing decision this year. He will look to have a better outing in this start against his former club.
Anderson will be backed by the Dodgers’ potent offense. Los Angeles ranks second in the major leagues in runs scored and OPS, and it ranks fourth in batting average. The team’s “Big Three” at the top of the lineup — Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman — paces the offense.
Freeman has been one of the hottest bats in the league recently. The Dodgers first baseman is hitting .471 with five home runs and 13 runs batted in his last 15 games. He has a hit in 14 of those 15 games and he is 14-for-34 against José Ureña.
Betts has a hit in 10 of his last 12 games. Turner enters Thursday’s matchup riding a 14-game hitting streak, but he is 0-for-18 against Ureña in his career. Something will have to give there. Cody Bellinger is 4-for-5 with a home run against Ureña.
Tyler Anderson is not the first left-handed pitcher that the Rockies have beat up on this season. The Rockies hit .285 and have a .792 OPS against left-handed pitching.
Brendan Rodgers is hitting .318 with a .907 OPS, and five of his nine home runs have come against lefties. Kris Bryant is hitting .345 against left-handed pitching, and he is 9-for-24 with four home runs against Anderson.
The Rockies rank second in MLB in team batting average. However, their offense is also much better at home, where they hit .287 with a .815 OPS. The Rockies average 5.7 runs per game and are 28-24 in home games. Colorado may need a big performance from its offense to support starting pitcher José Ureña.
Since being acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers, Ureña is 1-2 with a 3.13 ERA in four starts. In the first three starts, he allowed two runs or fewer, including one run in 6.2 innings against the Dodgers in LA on July 6. However, he has been living dangerously: In 24 innings, he has allowed 10 walks and has a 1.38 WHIP.
Ureña has a 5.19 xERA, .266 xBA, and .454 xSLG. He also ranks in the second percentile in strikeout percentage and 10th percentile in Whiff Percentage. For his career, he has a 4.70 ERA, which suggests that regression is coming. The Brewers touched him up for five runs in 5.1 innings in his last start, and the Dodgers offense is more than capable of doing the same.
Dodgers vs. Rockies Pick
The Rockies are 4-2 against the Dodgers in Colorado, and there is solid value on the runline (+116) and moneyline (+184). However, I have a hard time backing Ureña.
If Colorado wins this game, it will be because of its offense. So, I am targeting the team total instead.
Colorado has a favorable matchup against the left-handed Anderson. The Rockies have scored five runs in six of their last nine home games and have averaged five runs per game when hosting LA this season. Five runs will cash the team total as well.
Pick: Colorado Rockies Team Total Runs Over 4.5 (-122)
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