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MLB Strikeout Props Tonight
Yankees vs. Mets
Gerrit Cole
Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Gerrit Cole made his season debut last week and threw only 62 pitches in that start.
He had built up his pitch count to 68 in his rehab assignment, so it's clear the Yankees are being very careful with him as he works his way back from an injury that delayed the start of his season until now. I'm guessing his pitch count will be around 75-80 for tonight.
Taking a deeper dive into his first start, it's also clear that Cole is being a bit cautious with his pitch selection. He only threw his slider 7% of the time in that start, compared to 21% of the time last year.
His fastball is his top strikeout pitch, but his slider is his second-best strikeout pitch. So his strikeout rate could be a bit lower until he feels comfortable throwing his slider closer to 20% of the time, which could take a few starts considering he's coming back from an elbow injury.
Therefore, we should expect him to lean more on his cutter and throwing it at a higher rate tonight, and the Mets have the fourth-lowest whiff rate against cutters this season.
The best part of the lineup for Cole to rack up strikeouts against will be the 3-7 hitters. However, with him potentially throwing only 75-80 pitches, I'm projecting him to face ~20 hitters, which would mean he gets pulled just before that 3-7 hitter stretch for the third time. I think the market is overlooking this a bit, and that's why I'm showing some sneaky value on Cole's under.
Five strikeouts is Cole's most likely outcome tonight (~21% chance) and I'm showing around a 61% chance he stays under 5.5.
