Guardians vs Orioles Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Monday, May 29
Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Wells #68 of the Baltimore Orioles.
Guardians vs. Orioles Odds
-105 / -115
-105 / -115
This matchup is the first installment of a three-game series between these American League opponents. Will Baltimore defend its home diamond, or can Cleveland pull off the road upset?
Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Guardians vs. Orioles betting pick.
It has been a disappointing start to the campaign for the Cleveland Guardians, who sit in third-place in their division with a 23-29 record. However, they still remain just 3.5 games out of first place, which is a product of playing in what is likely the weakest division in baseball.
With that said, Cleveland's main issues this season reside at the dish. Entering this game, the Guardians rank 28th or lower in the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs.
Despite these poor rankings, the one thing this lineup does extremely well is avoid strikeouts, something likely to continue against right-hander Tyler Wells, who is slated to take the mound for the Baltimore Orioles in this game. This season, Cleveland ranks second in the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching.
Looking at Monday's projected starting lineup, seven of the nine hitters possess a K% south of 20% this year.
As mentioned above, right-hander Tyler Wells is slated to take the mound for the Orioles. Starting off his campaign in good form, Wells is 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA and 0.84 WHIP through 10 appearances on the rubber.
However, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming, which is something we saw start to develop in his latest start against the New York Yankees. In that game, he surrendered five runs on five hits through five innings pitched.
Once again, Wells' inability to limit the long-ball showed itself, allowing three home runs. Currently, the right-hander ranks in the 32nd percentile or lower in HardHit%, xSLG and Barrel%.
If he gets rocked again, then it could be a short outing for Wells, which bodes well for his strikeout prop to go under. Despite going over 4.5 strikeouts in each of his past three outings, the 28-year-old went against New York, the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Los Angeles Angels, three teams who are much more strikeout prone than the Guardians.
Guardians vs. Orioles Betting Pick
While it is not the largest sample size, this current Cleveland roster possesses a mere 4.8 K% through 21 career plate appearances against Wells. In his lone career start against the Guardians, Wells allowed two runs on two hits through four innings pitched while striking out just one batter.
Despite soaring over this total in each of his past three starts, now is the time to fade Wells against a Cleveland lineup that is excellent at avoiding punchouts.
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