Guardians vs Rays Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks on Friday, August 11

Guardians vs Rays Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks on Friday, August 11 article feature image

Pictured: Wander Franco. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images)

Guardians vs. Rays Odds

Friday, August 11
6:40 p.m. ET
Guardians Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-110 / -110
Rays Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-110 / -110
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Aaron Civale has the opportunity to show the Cleveland Guardians what they're missing when he faces them in a Tampa Bay Rays uniform on Friday night. Xzavion Curry will start for the Guardians, who are quickly falling out of the playoff race.

Both of these starters have drastically overachieved this season. Additionally, both the Guardians and the Rays have hit right-handed pitching fairly well in the past month.

With this in mind, find a betting preview, pick and prediction for Guardians vs. Rays on Friday night below.

Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

Cleveland Guardians

Curry has transitioned from a long reliever into a starter. His ERA is 2.95, but his xERA is 5.14 and his his Average Exit Velocity is 92 mph. He's only struck out 17.2% of hitters and although he's very good at limiting walks (6.5%), a decent team is likely to get to him sooner or later.

Over the past month, the Guardians have a 108 wRC+ with a 17.4% strikeout rate and a .757 OPS against right-handed pitching. In that same time period, Cleveland has five hitters with a xwOBA over .320.

In relief, the Guardians have been great with a 2.52 xFIP and a sub-5% walk rate in August. However, they only have three arms with an xFIP under 4.00 over the past month, so they may be limited if the Rays get to Curry early.

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Tampa Bay Rays

Civale has similar issues with hard contact. No, his expected numbers don't look as dire as Curry’s, but he still carries a 3.75 xERA against a 2.34 ERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 89.4 mph, but his Hard-Hit Rate is 36.5%. In his most recent outing, against the lowly Detroit Tigers, he permitted nine hits and three earned runs over 4 1/3 innings. That shows some of the good luck he's seen this season.

The Rays have a .753 OPS and a 112 wRC+ off righties over the past month. They, like the Guardians, have five active bats with a xwOBA over .320, but Tampa Bay gets the benefit of facing Curry, the weaker starter.

Wander Franco – Tampa Bay Rays (16)

— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) August 10, 2023

Tampa Bay’s bullpen has been strong with a 3.40 xFIP and a 6.6% walk rate since the trade deadline. The Rays have several arms with xFIPs under 4.00, so even if Civale exits early, he should have proper backup. That may cause some pause to betting the over, but Cleveland could still hit Civale hard early.

Guardians vs. Rays

Betting Pick & Prediction

Yes, these bullpens have been great lately, but both these teams have hit right-handed pitching well and sending out starters due for regression. Take the over from 8 (-118) and play to 9 (-110).
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