MLB season is in full swing and today we have a 10-game slate ahead.
I've got 4 MLB Home Run Props and home-run picks, including picks for Astros vs Mariners, Diamondbacks vs Orioles, Marlins vs Braves, and Rangers vs Athletics.
MLB Home Run Props: Today's Expert HR Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 6:35 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Editor's Note: A home run parlay is not the author's formal recommendation. These home run picks have value as straight bets.
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Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop
I have no idea why Yordan Alvarez is priced this high, but I'm going to take advantage of it.
The matchup is slightly below average for power, and this ballpark is a small downgrade, but that's not enough to justify this price.
Yordan has been one of the best hitters in the league this season and has massive power.
I have the true odds here around +400, making this a great bet.
Pick: Yordan Alvarez 1+ Home Runs (+475)
| | | |
Diamondbacks vs Orioles Home Run Prop
The matchup for Ketel Marte is a plus, as opposing pitcher Dean Kremer has allowed an above-average amount of HRs to lefties in his career.
This ballpark is one of the best in the league for lefty power, and the weather should be above average, with temps in the high-70s and wind blowing out at 9 mph.
I have the true odds here around +375, making this a great bet.
Pick: Ketel Marte 1+ Home Runs (+440)
| | | |
Marlins vs Braves Home Run Prop
Drake Baldwin has slowed down since his hot start to the season, but I believe that the power is for real.
The weather is good for hitting over in Atlanta and the matchup vs. Perez is a plus for lefty power.
I have the true odds on Baldwin around +450 making this a good EV bet.
Pick: Drake Baldwin 1+ Home Runs (+490)
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Rangers vs Athletics Home Run Prop
Corey Seager gets a plus matchup vs. Luis Severino who grades out as a good matchup for lefty power.
The ballpark is one of the best in the league for HRs and the weather is slightly below average.
Seager is one of the best HR hitters in the league and I have the true odds around +350 making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Corey Seager 1+ Home Runs (+410)
