The New York Yankees host the Houston Astros on August 9, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 2:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on YES.
Find my MLB betting preview and Astros vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Astros vs Yankees Prediction
- Astros vs Yankees picks: Luis Gil to Record 6 + Strikeouts +145 (bet365)
My Astros vs Yankees best bet is Luis Gil to record six or more strikeouts. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Yankees Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +138 | 8 -110o / -110u | -123 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -169 | 8 -110o / -110u | +101 |
Astros vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Framber Valdez (HOU) | Stat | RHP Luis Gil (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-5 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 3.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 2.83/ 3.46 | ERA /xERA | 13.50/6.31 |
| 2.89/2.96 | FIP / xFIP | 4.91/7.17 |
| 1.12 | WHIP | 2.70 |
| 17.4 | K-BB% | -5.3 |
| 62.5 | GB% | 25 |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 102 | Location+ | 97 |
Doug Ziefel’s Astros vs Yankees Preview
Houston Astros Betting Preview
The Astros used some late-inning thunder to secure the win in the series opener last night. However, this afternoon's matchup is an intriguing one as they are set to face Luis Gil, who has proven to be an enigma in his young career.
Gil is making just his second start since returning from injury, and his first appearance since his 2024 campaign, where he won the Rookie of the Year Award, did not go well.
Gil's command issues flared up as he walked four and allowed five runs in just 3.1 innings of work. Although his location was off, his stuff looked as good as ever with his spin rates up on his fastball and slider.
The Astros are in for some issues with New York's Pitcher, as they are very aggressive, holding the fourth-highest swing rate and the second-highest chase rate in baseball. While they have not struck out often against righties this season, we've seen elite strikeout upside from Gil, and this is a lineup that will take their hacks regardless of whether the ball is in the zone or not.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
As for the Yankees, even with Judge back in the lineup, they have yet to get back on track. They are 4-6 over their last ten games and sit 6.5 games back of the Blue Jays in the AL East.
This afternoon, getting the bats going will be tough as they will be tasked with Framber Valdez. He has been elite this season as he enters this outing with a 2.83 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
Valdez is one of the game's best groundball artists, as his groundball rate sits in the 98th percentile. That is crucial to his success against the Yankees in their hitter-friendly ballpark.
New York will likely have to contend with Valdez for at least two-thirds of this ball game, as the Astros' backend of the bullpen is far from fresh. However, Valdez's efficiency has made him a regular in the seventh inning.
Astros vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
This matchup has a lot of variables, as the big question mark is Luis Gil. Which version of him will we see? I'm opting to capitalize on that uncertainty by backing him in a spot where New York needs him to throw at least five quality innings.
The Yankees tamed Gil's command issues last season, and when he's right, his stuff is elite. I'm expecting him to rein it in this afternoon and have success against an uber-aggressive Astros lineup.
Pick: Luis Gil 6+ Strikeouts
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no play on the run line.
Over/Under
I lean towards the under as both starters should be solid, and the wind will be blowing in.
