The New York Yankees (62-55) and Houston Astros (65-52) will face off in the MLB this afternoon. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on SCHN.
New York is a -205 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Houston is +170 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 9 total runs.
Continue below for my Astros vs Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, August 10, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Astros vs Yankees Prediction
- Astros vs Yankees pick: Max Fried Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
My Astros vs. Yankees best bet is Max Fried under 5.5 strikeouts, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Yankees Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 9 +100 / -120 | +170 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 9 +100 / -120 | -205 |
Astros vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| Jason Alexander (HOU) | Stat | Max Fried (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 12-4 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.3 |
| 5.97/4.32 | ERA /xERA | 2.78/3.41 |
| 5.03/4.50 | FIP / xFIP | 3.05/3.41 |
| 1.61 | WHIP | 1.07 |
| 7.5 | K-BB% | 17.1 |
| 48.6 | GB% | 51.7 |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 101 | Location+ | 102 |
Doug Ziefel’s Astros vs Yankees Preview
Houston Astros Betting Preview
The Astros were able to rally against the Yankees' bullpen yesterday, but ultimately it would be their own bullpen that would surrender the final blow as the Yankees tied up the series.
In this afternoon's rubber match, the Astros are in for a tough task with Max Fried set to take the hill.
Fried has been magnificent for the Yankees this season, posting a 2.78 ERA. However, the Astros should prove to be just as much of a challenge for Fried.
The Yankees' lethal lefty has been excellent, but his xERA of 3.40 and xFIP of 3.30 indicate there is some slight regression coming. Fried is not an elite strikeout pitcher and has the tendency to fall behind in counts as his first pitch strike rate is well below average.
We know the Astros are very aggressive and that worked against them yesterday with Luis Gil on the mound, but with Fried pounding the zone after throwing ball one, we should see Houston put the ball in play often.
Even when they are not putting the ball in play early in counts, the Astros are tough to put away, holding the seventh-best strikeout rate against lefties this season. Look for all of this to keep Fried from racking up the strikeouts today.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
The Yankees' bats came to life yesterday against some of the best arms the Astros have to offer.
New York is aiming to carry that momentum over to today's matchup, where they'll face Jason Alexander.
Alexander has transitioned from the bullpen to the back of the rotation and done so with success. He's allowed two earned runs or less in three of his four starts with a major blip against the Athletics that is greatly inflating his numbers.
Although his numbers are inflated, there is some concern as he's allowed a ton of hard contact and has had command issues at times.
His saving grace has been his ability to generate groundballs, but facing a Yankees lineup that lifts the ball better than any in the majors, not missing bats is asking for trouble when in Yankee Stadium.
Astros vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
Oddsmakers have the Yankees pegged to take this series as they have a great matchup offensively.
However, it's not as much of a sure thing as the odds imply, with the Astros set to make Max Fried work hard.
Their aggression and high contact rates may allow Fried to work quickly, but it will severely limit his strikeout upside.
We've seen Fried struggle to put hitters away on high-contact lineups as he combined for just 12 strikeouts across four recent starts against the likes of the Blue Jays, Cubs, and Mets.
Take the under on Fried's strikeout total.
Pick: Max Fried Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no play on the run line.
Over/Under
I lean towards the under.
