The Cleveland Guardians host the Kansas City Royals on September 10, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on CLEG.
Find my MLB betting preview and Royals vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Our Royals vs Guardians Prediction
- Royals vs Guardians pick: Under 8
Our Royals vs Guardians best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Royals vs Guardians Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8 -110o / -110u | -110 |
Royals vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jonathan Bowlan (KCR) | Stat | LHP Logan Allen (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 7-11 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 3.57/3.79 | ERA /xERA | 4.46/4.67 |
| 3.91/3.87 | FIP / xFIP | 4.64/4.85 |
| 1.13 | WHIP | 1.44 |
| 14.0% | K-BB% | 8.2% |
| 48.4% | GB% | 43.0% |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 101 | Location+ | 97 |
Royals vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Cleveland Guardians (74-70) have taken full control of this series, grabbing a 10-2 win in Game 1 and following it up with a tight 2-0 victory in Game 2. That pushed their edge in the AL Central standings over the Kansas City Royals (73-72), setting up a pivotal Game 3 on Wednesday.
Oddsmakers have this one lined evenly, with both teams sitting at -110 on the moneyline, while the over/under is set at 8 runs. Jonathan Bowlan gets the ball for Kansas City, while Cleveland counters with left-hander Logan Allen.
While the Royals’ bullpen has been stretched and Cleveland’s bats erupted in Game 1, the sharper angle comes from Evan Abrams’ “Steam Unders with Low OU Support” system.
This model isolates games where the total opens between 8 and 10 runs, drops due to sharp action on the under, but still sees the majority of public tickets coming in on the over. That combination—sharp money steaming the under while casual bettors load up on the other side—has been profitable long term.
Crucially, this system filters out noise by avoiding extreme weather games and requiring that both teams’ recent scoring patterns sit near the posted totals. With temperatures expected to be mild in Cleveland, and both teams alternating between high-scoring bursts and quieter offensive nights, tonight fits neatly into the profile.
Pick: Under 8 (-110, Fanatics)
Royals vs Guardians Betting Trends
