The San Diego Padres host the Kansas City Royals on June 22, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SDPA.
The Royals and Padres will decide the winner of this three-game series today, after splitting the first two. Seth Lugo will start for Kansas City, and Randy Vasquez will oppose him for San Diego.
Find my MLB betting preview and Royals vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Royals vs Padres Prediction
- Royals vs Padres picks: Under 8.5 (-102, BetMGM)
My Royals vs Padres best bet is Under 8.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Royals vs Padres Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -118o / -102u | -115 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 8.5 -118o / -102u | -105 |
Royals vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Seth Lugo (KC) | Stat | RHP Randy Vasquez (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-5 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 3.05 / 4.94 | ERA / xERA | 3.70 / 5.92 |
| 4.53 / 4.08 | FIP / xFIP | 5.53 / 5.64 |
| 1.11 | WHIP | 1.36 |
| 12.5 | K-BB% | 2.5 |
| 40.9 | GB% | 40.4 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 97 | Location+ | 99 |
Royals vs Padres Preview
As the Public Fades Humidity = Unders system from Bet Labs informs, the weather angle is essential for this game.
The risky part of the Under 8.5 bet would be that both starting pitchers might be due for negative regression, given the gap between their current and expected earned run averages (ERAs).
Nevertheless, this series already cashed an Under on Saturday, and Petco Park ranks 21st in Baseball Savant's Park Factors for run production.
Both starting pitchers have managed to induce groundballs at a rate of 40% or higher, which is beneficial in this stadium and aligns with the humidity and neutral wind factors present.
The Padres and Royals have not been productive in June, ranking 21st and 23rd in wRC+ with 99 and 92, respectively.
If Seth Lugo and Randy Vasquez hold on, the relievers can keep the score low for the rest of the game. Both teams are among the top 10 bullpens in MLB in ERA.
Royals vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
This system capitalizes on an overlooked weather edge in MLB totals betting.
It focuses on regular-season games where elevated humidity — ranging from 45% to 95% — intersects with moderate temperatures and neutral wind patterns.
Despite the assumption that humidity boosts offense, public bettors are fading these conditions, which correlate with suppressed scoring in some environments.
In these spots, the home team has stayed under in recent games, with their five-game Over rate below 40%, suggesting low offensive rhythm.
The market has also subtly corrected, with the total dropping from open to close, and the overall percentage of bets on the over remains modest (between 6% and 29%).
These indicators combine to identify under-the-radar Under spots where public narratives misalign with actual scoring trends.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-102, BetMGM)
