The Philadelphia Phillies host the Los Angeles Dodgers on October 4, 2025. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:38 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on HBO Max.
It's been 16 years since the Dodgers and Phillies met in the postseason, yet this year's matchup has felt highly probable all season long. Despite the fact that one of these powerhouses is guaranteed to be eliminated in the divisional round, they are still priced as two of the three outright favorites to win the 2025 World Series.
Every game in this series should offer a high-quality pitching matchup, and that will be the case in Game 1 with Shohei Ohtani (2.87 ERA, 47 IP) set to face off against Cristopher Sanchez (2.57 ERA, 196 and 1/3 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Dodgers vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Dodgers vs Phillies Prediction
- Dodgers vs Phillies pick: Phillies ML -120 (Play to -125)
My Dodgers vs Phillies best bet is on Philly's moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Dodgers vs Phillies Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 7 -120o / 100u | +100 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +175 | 7 -120o / 100u | -120 |
Dodgers vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | Stat | LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 13-5 |
| 1.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 6.4 |
| 2.87 / 2.45 | ERA / xERA | 2.50 / 3.01 |
| 1.90 / 2.45 | FIP / xFIP | 2.55 / 2.77 |
| 1.04 | WHIP | 1.06 |
| 28.2 | K-BB% | 20.8 |
| 41.4 | GB% | 58.3 |
| 119 | Stuff+ | 114 |
| 99 | Location+ | 101 |
Nick Martin’s Dodgers vs Phillies Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Bullpen Concerns
The Dodgers enter this highly anticipated series after cruising past the Cincinnati Reds in the Wild Card round, a series that ultimately felt more like a tune-up than a legitimate threat to the defending champs.
Los Angeles's high-powered offense combined for 18 runs and 28 hits during the two games versus Cincinnati, and as expected, its bullpen offered the only legitimate cause for concern.
It's difficult to take a firm stance on which team holds a better starting rotation entering this series, and the same can be said regarding this matchup in particular.
After being used cautiously to only handle from two to four innings for much of the year, Shohei Ohtani pitched five and six innings, respectively, in his final two regular-season starts. One of those outings came versus the Phillies, and Ohtani was dominant in allowing zero hits across five innings of work. It is worth noting, however, that performance came in a relatively meaningless game for the Phillies, who had clinched the NL East title the night before.
Throughout his last five starts, Ohtani has an ERA of 2.28 and an xFIP of 2.28. He was hard-hit just 28.3% of the time and managed a strikeout minus walk rate of 28.3%. His pitch metrics were also excellent, with a Stuff+ of 120 and Pitching+ of 119 in those outings.
The Dodgers' depleted bullpen struggled to an ERA of 5.25 over the last 30 days of the season, as well as an xFIP of 4.11. Following a shaky performance against the Reds, it is without question the team's greatest concern on paper entering this matchup.
Based on Defensive Runs Saved (third in MLB) and Outs Above Average (12th in MLB), the Dodgers were very effective at fielding this season.
The Dodgers finished the regular season with a wRC+ of 111 versus left-handed pitching and hold a wRC+ of 118 versus lefties since the start of September.
Will Smith is the only Dodgers position player who is dealing with an injury entering this series. Still, manager Dave Roberts stated on Friday that Smith would be available to catch in this series, and it's unclear if he will be behind the dish in this matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Strong at Home
It continues to feel as though this highly talented Phillies side is right there in terms of winning a championship, and it will go down as quite a miss if the tightly knit roster core is unable to find a way to break through and win a World Series during their time together.
Cristopher Sanchez will be tasked with getting the Phillies off to a good start this postseason, and their passionate fanbase will certainly take their chances with him on the mound in this tough matchup. Dating back to the start of the 2024 season, the Phillies have won 27 of the 33 games that Sanchez has started at Citizens Bank Park.
Sanchez finished the regular season with a record of 6-0 at Citizens Bank Park and allowed an ERA of 1.94 across 97 and 2/3 innings of work.
Sanchez enters this matchup in tremendous form, having pitched to an ERA of 1.65 throughout his last five appearances. He allowed an xFIP of 2.41 in those outings and allowed hard contact only 23.9% of the time. He also held a strikeout minus walk rate of 23.9% and a Pitching+ rating of 121.
The Phillies bullpen pitched to an ERA of 3.69 over the final 30 days of the season and combined to hold the highest Pitching+ rating of any postseason team.
The Phillies will be in their preferred split versus a righty in Ohtani, as they hit to a wRC+ of 110 versus righties this season. They enter this series with no noteworthy absences from the lineup, as Johan Rojas is the only position player on the IL.
Dodgers vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
While Ohtani has been in tremendous form recently (both as a pitcher and hitter), I'm still happy to take my chances in backing Sanchez at home in this high-pressure matchup. Sanchez has been borderline untouchable recently and has proven himself more so in terms of a traditional starter's role this season than Ohtani has.
Ohtani features a betting total of 14.5 outs in this matchup and is not expected to work overly deep into the game. His hard-hit rate jumps to 39.1% the second time through the order, albeit in a small sample.
While Ohtani's recent dominance is concerning, Sanchez has been comparably excellent, and if this game is close when the two starters exit the game, the Phillies should have a better chance of finding their way to victory.
At -125 or better, I see value in betting the Phillies to win this matchup.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline -120 (bet365 | Play to -125)
Moneyline
As outlined, backing the Phillies to win is my favorite play from this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
There is a valid argument for preferring to back the Phillies to cover the run line at +175, as this could be a decent spot to target the angle that they could build on any potential lead in the late innings.
Over/Under
I'm not interested in the total for this game.
Dodgers vs Phillies Betting Trends
