The Seattle Mariners and Baltimore Orioles open a three-game series on Tuesday, June 3, 2025. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game can be streamed on MLB.TV.
Continue reading below for a Mariners vs Orioles over/under pick for Tuesday night, which features a starting pitching matchup of George Kirby and Tomoyuki Sugano.
Orioles vs Mariners Prediction, Over/Under Pick
- Orioles vs Mariners pick: Under 7.5 (-102 MGM)
My Orioles vs Mariners best bet is on the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Mariners Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +142 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | +120 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -172 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | -142 |
Orioles vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) | Stat | George Kirby (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 22-36 | W-L | 32-26 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 3.23 / 4.48 | ERA /xERA | 11.42 / 9.00 |
| 4.78 / 4.36 | FIP / xFIP | 7.46 / 4.45 |
| 1.06 | WHIP | 1.85 |
| 9.8% | K-BB% | 11.9% |
| 43.8% | GB% | 41.4% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 105 | Location+ | 105 |
The Betting Insider’s Orioles vs Mariners Preview
The Orioles and Mariners square off tonight at T-Mobile Park in what sets up as a sneaky good spot for under bettors. Despite not being a traditional pitchers' duel on paper, several underlying factors — including park dimensions, weather conditions and starting pitcher profiles — point toward a lower-scoring affair.
Baltimore sends right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano to the mound. A model of consistency in his first MLB season, Sugano leads the Orioles with five quality starts. Advanced metrics may not be in love with him, but he excels in a few key areas that matter for suppressing runs: limiting hard contact, inducing ground balls and avoiding walks. He's been especially sharp on the road, carrying a 2.73 ERA and holding opponents to a .198 average away from Camden Yards. With temperatures expected to be chilly in Seattle and wind blowing in toward home plate, this is a great setup for Sugano to notch his sixth quality start.
Seattle counters with George Kirby, who’s still working his way back from a shoulder injury. He’s been roughed up in two starts since returning, allowing 11 earned runs over just 8 2/3 innings. Still, Kirby has a proven track record at T-Mobile Park, where he owns a career 3.14 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP across 43 starts. If he's going to get back on track, this would be the setting for it, especially against a struggling Baltimore lineup.
Orioles vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis
The pitching matchup may not jump off the page, but don’t let the surface numbers fool you — this game has all the makings of a tight, low-scoring contest. One of Betting Insider’s strongest Bet Labs systems, which heavily factors in weather and park conditions, has triggered for tonight’s game.
System #1) Fair Weather with Wind Blowing in, Sharp $ (61% Win Rate and 16% ROI Since 2020)
- the closing total is between 7 and 10
- the o/u change from open to close is between -2.5 and 0.
- the under is receiving no more than 55% of public bets
- the average temperature is no higher than 70 degrees
- the wind direction is “In”, “From Right”, or ‘From Left”
- the average wind speed is between 3 and 15 mph
System #2) Home Favorite Just Snapped an Over Streak, Fair Weather (65% Win Rate and 24% ROI Since 2020)
- the closing total is between 7.5 and 9
- the home team is favored, up to -300
- the home team has gone over in 2/L3 games
- the home team went under the closing total in their previous game
- the wind direction is anywhere but “Out”
- the average temperature is below 85 degrees
Both systems lean into overlooked under conditions where weather suppresses offense and the market may be slow to adjust.
System #1 targets cooler, wind-in environments where totals drop despite limited public betting — often signaling sharp influence and a scoring environment worse than expected.
System #2 capitalizes on recency bias, fading inflated totals on home favorites after a brief over streak is snapped — especially when weather offers no help to hitters.
Pick: Orioles / Mariners under 7.5 (-102 MGM)
Moneyline
We have no moneyline bet on tonight's game.
Run Line (Spread)
We're passing on the Orioles vs. Mariners run line.
Over/Under
As mentioned, we will be taking Under 7.5.
Orioles vs Mariners Betting Trends
