Mariners vs Rays Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Thursday, September 7
Via Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Luis Castillo #58 of the Seattle Mariners reacts after retiring the side in the seventh inning against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on August 21, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois.
- The Mariners and Rays face off in Tampa Thursday night.
- Our analyst likes the Mariners as road favorites in this showdown.
- Find the latest Mariners vs. Rays odds and prediction below.
Mariners vs. Rays Odds
Luis Castillo is among the American League leaders in several pitching statistics and will keep his bid for a Cy Young going against the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday. The Rays will counter with Zack Littell, who has been reliable enough to eat some innings but is not nearly in Castillo's class.
The Mariners also boast one of the hottest lineups in baseball, especially against right-handers. Typically, Seattle holds a major edge in relief, but its bullpen hasn't fared as well in the last couple weeks.
The Mariners have a significant starting pitching edge, but is it enough to warrant a bet? Find a betting preview, pick and prediction for Mariners vs. Rays below.
Castillo has a 3.19 ERA against a 3.73 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 90 mph with a Barrel Rate of 9.9% and a Hard-Hit Rate of 42.7%, hence the higher xERA.
Nonetheless, his Pitching Run Value ranks in the 94th percentile with potentially the best fastball in baseball this season. He is only walking 5.9% of hitters while striking out 26.8%, so this should be another boost for the Cy Young hopeful.
At the #Mariners game on SUN, & Luis Castillo's 4-seam & slider sometimes looked electric, as he kept the fastball up & slider down. Changeup usage has trended down.
🔥4-seam: 19.1% SwK
🔥Slider: 20.8% SwK
👀4-seam: 16.7% SwK (career-high)
👀Slider: 16.6% SwK pic.twitter.com/5wOoCMPkUN
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) August 28, 2023
The Mariners have a 130 wRC+ with an .819 OPS over the last two weeks off of righties. They have eight active hitters eclipsing a .355 xwOBA, including both catchers, so they should be primed to continue their recent success at the plate.
Julio Rodríguez. Again.
His 2⃣6⃣th of the year. pic.twitter.com/eQcE60rAQ1
— Daniel Kramer (@DKramer_) September 6, 2023
The Mariners have a 4.35 xFIP over the last two weeks in relief with a 23.7% Strikeout Rate and 8.7% Walk Rate. They do have five arms under the 4.00 xFIP mark, so this is an added bonus. Castillo allowed five earned runs over five innings in his last outing, but otherwise he has consistently pitched well into the sixth.
Littell enters this start with a 4.69 ERA against a 4.72 xERA. Like Castillo, he has a propensity to allow hard hits with a 90.5 mph Average Exit Velocity, 9.7% Barrel Rate and a 44% Hard-Hit Rate.
On the other hand, Littell is striking out only 19.3% of batters while walking a minuscule 3%. His overall Pitching Run Value ranks in the middle of the league, and he does not have the ability to pitch as deep into games as Castillo does. Consequently, Castillo gives Seattle a significant edge here since he will not put the strain on the bullpen that Littell likely will.
However, the Rays can hit right-handers. They have a 109 wRC+ and .744 OPS over the last two weeks with an 8.2% Walk Rate and a 24% Strikeout Rate. They have only five active hitters above a .335 xwOBA, so this lineup surely doesn't have the Mariners' caliber of depth.
The Rays boast a collective 3.61 xFIP in relief over the last two weeks with a 29.9% Strikeout Rate and 7.2% Walk Rate. However, Jason Adam is on the Injured List, so they only have three arms below a 4.00 xFIP in that same time frame. As a result, Seattle has a significant edge in the bullpen as well.
Mariners vs. Rays
Betting Pick & Prediction
Castillo is a better pitcher, even when he has some trouble, than Littell is. The Seattle righty can easily throw deeper in this game, and the Seattle lineup is red-hot off of righties in the last couple of weeks.
Getting the Mariners with a Cy Young candidate throwing is a bargain. Take Seattle to -140 on the moneyline.
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