Mariners vs Twins Odds, Prediction: Thursday MLB Betting Preview

Mariners vs Twins odds for the series finale on Thursday at Target Field have the Twins installed as -130 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under of 6.5 (-110o / -110u).

For my Mariners vs Twins prediction, I will be looking at the total, which is the lowest of the Thursday MLB slate with a potential pitchers' duel between Logan Gilbert of Seattle and Pablo Lopez of Minnesota.

Let's dive into my MLB betting preview and Mariners vs Twins pick for Thursday, May 9.

Seven is typically a very low total for an MLB game, but that is because Seattle's ace gets the ball Thursday. Right-hander Logan Gilbert is once again off to a dominant start this season, posting a 3-0 record with a 1.69 ERA and 0.79 WHIP through his first seven starts.

There were seven or fewer total runs scored in six of those seven outings. Based on Gilbert's underlying metrics, regression is not something to be too concerned about, as he ranks in the 73rd percentile or higher in xERA and xBA.

This success is likely to continue against Minnesota, a team that the right-hander is 2-0 against through three career meetings, with a commanding 1.69 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. There were seven or fewer runs scored in two of those three meetings.

Following Gilbert is one of the best bullpens in baseball. Entering this matchup, the Mariners' relief pitching ranks in the top four of the league in ERA and FIP.

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Seattle isn't the only team that possesses a strong bullpen in this game, as Minnesota's relief pitching also ranks in the top 11 of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP. Not that this bullpen will need to be relied on too heavily, considering that right-hander Pablo López will take the mound for the Twins.

López is 3-2 through his first seven starts with a 4.30 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, and he has pitched much better than those numbers indicate. One poor performance is weighing that ERA down, but the right-hander has been sharp the rest of the way, and there have been six or fewer total runs scored in six of those seven starts.

He also has fared well in his two career starts against the Mariners, posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

We know that we can trust the pitching in this matchup, including both starts and each bullpen. So that just leaves us with the hitting, which is another variable contributing to this low total.

Seattle has struggled mightily at the dish this season, ranking in the bottom 10 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS. While Minnesota is better, it still hovers around the league average in the majority of those categories.

The Twins' bats are the biggest concern in taking the under, but this current Minnesota lineup possesses a mere .235 BA, .333 SLG and .272 wOBA through 56 career plate appearances against Gilbert. Lastly, the weather should also be in our favor, as the forecast calls for 12+ mph winds blowing in from left field.

Pick: Under 7 (-105 at DraftKings | Play to -110)