MLB Odds & Picks for Marlins vs. Phillies: Don’t Expect Production From Miami

MLB Odds & Picks for Marlins vs. Phillies: Don’t Expect Production From Miami article feature image

Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Gibson

  • The Phillies play host to the Marlins in a Thursday matinee.
  • Kyle Gibson will get the start for Philadelphia, and our analyst is expecting him to spin a gem.
  • D.J. James breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds

Marlins Odds+140
Phillies Odds-166
Time1:05 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Kyle Gibson and the Philadelphia Phillies play host to Edward Cabrera and the Miami Marlins on Thursday afternoon. Gibson has been solid this season. He does not necessarily jump off of the Baseball Savant stats page, but he mitigates the damage by allowing weaker contact than average, which will play to his advantage against the Marlins’ depleted lineup. Cabrera has been solid, but his sample size is a bit too small to draw sizable conclusions, just yet. He has a 3.83 xERA in four appearances with a 2.61 ERA, so he does have luck on his side. That said, 3.83 is solid, although he has walked at least two in every start.

Even with the Phillies posting a 107 wRC+, it is hard to choose their moneyline or total in this matchup. However, the Marlins are missing some key pieces. Going under their team total is the smartest play in this game.

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Miami Marlins: Will Cabrera Shut Down Phillies?

Cabrera has one poor outing against the Houston Astros, where they tagged him for five earned runs in 3 2/3 innings. In this game, the Phillies are unlikely to do that sort of damage because Cabrera boasts a 27.1% Hard-Hit Rate and 84.1 mph Average Exit Velocity. Walks will hurt him, but this Phillies team ranks near the middle of the league in walks this season. Bryce Harper is also sidelined, which depletes the walk numbers. It is hard to gauge how this lineup will fare against Cabrera.

They Phillies have seven bats with a xwOBA over .330 in the past month off of right-handers. Yes, a few of these batters, like Nick Maton, Edmundo Sosa and Brandon Marsh come with a small sample size, but the majority of the lineup can do some damage. Still, it will be interesting to see they fare against his lively fastball. Since Cabrera has the propensity to shut lineups down, avoiding a bet here would be wise.

Miami also does not have the greatest bullpen, but they do have a 3.67 xFIP in the past month. This is at least serviceable and another reason why they could pitch well against a team like the Phillies. Tommy Nance and Jordan Holloway are on the Injured List, but the Marlins do have a few arms with a xFIP under 4.00 who can get the job done when Cabrera inevitably exits.

Philadelphia Phillies: Signs Point Toward Strong Effort From Pitching Staff

Gibson is the savvy vet in this matchup. His 4.20 xERA is not amazing, but it encompasses some strong outings. He also ranks in at least the 60th percentile in Hard-Hit Percentage and Barrel Percentage. This says he will limit any successes from a paltry Miami lineup.

Jon Berti, Jazz Chisholm, Brian Anderson, Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler are all on the Injured List. Jesús Aguilar, Peyton Burdick and Charles Leblanc are the only healthy Marlins in the past month with a .330+ xwOBA against righties. The rest of the lineup falls off significantly and that is where Gibson will excel.

In addition, the Phillies bullpen also has a decent xFIP over that timeframe (3.67), so they have enough relief to finish what Gibson starts.

Marlins-Phillies Pick

The Marlins have a solid pitching staff, but it ends there. The Phillies are not necessarily going to dominate on Thursday, but Gibson and the relief corps should. Miami cannot hit and any semblance of hope for a crooked offensive number on the board for them is nixed with such a poor lineup and a plague of injuries.

Take the Miami team total under 3.5 (-112) and play it to 3 (-120). The Marlins should not score much.

Pick: Miami Marlins u3.5 (-112) | play to 3 (-120)

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