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Sunday MLB Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Mets vs. Diamondbacks: Starting Pitchers Have the Edge in Arizona

Sunday MLB Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Mets vs. Diamondbacks: Starting Pitchers Have the Edge in Arizona article feature image

Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images. Pictured: Madison Bumgarner

  • The Diamondbacks host the Mets as short underdogs on Sunday afternoon.
  • The Diamondbacks are looking for their first series win of the year with ace Madison Bumgarner on the mound.
  • Jules Posner breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Mets vs. Diamondbacks Odds

Mets Odds -155
Diamondbacks Odds +145
Over/Under 9
Time 4:10 p.m. ET
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Arizona Diamondbacks and the New York Mets square off Sunday afternoon for the rubber match of their surprisingly competitive three-game series.

The Diamondbacks showed some fight after coming back from a four-run deficit in their Friday night loss by jumping on Mets starter Trevor Williams early for the 5-2 win on Saturday night.

The Diamondbacks turn things over to their ace Madison Bumgarner to see if they can get their first series victory of 2022.

The New York Mets will counter with their opening day starter, Tylor Megill, on the mound Sunday before heading to St. Louis for a three-game series against the Cardinals.

Mets Offense Has Been Raking

The Mets offense has been firing on all cylinders for most of the season so far. They are second in the majors in team wRC+ and first in runs scored.

This lineup has been anchored by a resurgent Francisco Lindor, but frankly, almost everyone is hitting, even Travis Jankowski. The Mets have eight of their regulars over the 100 wRC+ threshold so far this season, and they have one of the most balanced lineups in the game right now.

The Mets also have a top-five pitching staff. Carlos Carrasco and Megill have really stepped up so far this season, and they are still without the services of Jacob deGrom, who is the best pitcher in baseball.

Their biggest weakness is their bullpen, which is 21st in ERA and 15th in FIP, but their dependence on their offense and their starters has overshadowed the pen’s shortcomings this season.

Megill is set to make his third road start of the season, and he still has not allowed an earned run on the road in 10.1 innings.

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Can Bumgarner and the Diamondbacks Pull the Upset?

The Diamondbacks got off to a really rough start, but their offense seems to have sprung to life over the past four games. Obviously, that is a tiny sample size, but they still have a fair amount of offensive talent which is underperforming at the same time.

This isn’t to say they’re an elite offense, but they’re better than their .180 team batting average and 78 wRC+ would indicate.

Bumgarner takes the hill for the Diamondbacks, and the Mets have had trouble with Diamondback starters this series. Zac Gallen held them to one run over five innings on Friday, and Humberto Castellanos also held them to two runs over five innings.

Bumgarner does have some huge red flags in his peripherals as his 4.96 FIP does not jive well with his 1.38 ERA. This means Bumgarner is due for some regression. However, he does fare better at home than on the road historically. Considering the troubles the Mets are having with D’Backs starters, he may keep this game close.

Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks bullpen may be their downfall as they are one of the worst units in baseball and may have used up their quality performance of the series in last night’s game.

Mets-Diamondbacks Pick

The Diamondbacks have been tough for the Mets to put away. With the Diamondbacks pitcher having the edge against the Mets so far this series, the total opened at nine and has moved down to 8.5 on some books.

Considering the competitiveness of this series, the starting pitching matchup, and the all around lack of offense in baseball, the under is the play in this game.

Pick: Under 8.5 +100

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