Mets vs Marlins Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Tuesday, September 19
Pictured: Luis Arraez gives Jazz Chisholm Jr. a gatorade bath. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
Mets vs. Marlins Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+134 | 8 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -154 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-158 | 8 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +128 |
The Miami Marlins are looking to lock up one of the final National League wild-card slots but will have to get through their division rival – the New York Mets – to do so.
Braxton Garrett will get the start for the Marlins and the Mets will counter with Joey Lucchesi, who has been pretty reliable in limited action. However, like Garrett, his expected numbers are nothing to write home about.
Both of these teams have hit left-handed pitching well in the past month and New York has struggled in relief. As a result, the over is the Marlins vs. Mets best bet Tuesday.
Lucchesi, like Garrett, is a soft-tosser and has thrown just 35 innings this season. It's a small sample size, but he has a 2.83 ERA and is only striking out 16.7% of batters with a 9% walk rate. His Barrel Rate is above 10%, his Average Exit Velocity is 88.7 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate is 38.3%.
Despite the good results he's seen thus far, his xERA is 5.71. Regression is coming and the Marlins may be able to score some runs here.
New York hammers left-handed pitching. Since September 1, the Mets have a 134 wRC+ with a .838 OPS. Their walk rate is 8.9%, and their strikeout rate is 19.3%. Most of the Mets' hitter hitters don't have a large enough sample size this month, but dating back to August 1, New York has six batters with an xwOBA over .315 xwOBA.
In relief, the Mets have struggled. New York's bullpen has a 5.10 xFIP and an 11.2% walk rate, both of which are abysmal.
Garrett has been a great rotation arm for the Marlins, but his 4.56 xERA against a 3.67 ERA suggests poor results are to come.
He has a 7.6% Barrel Rate, but his Average Exit Velocity is 90.2 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate is 45.2%. His walk rate is a low 4.4% and his strikeout rate is about average (23.7%). However, he's excelled because his ground-ball rate is 49.8%.
The Marlins have hit lefties well this month. They have a 114 wRC+, a .791 OPS and their walk rate is 8.4%. Since Aug. 1, the Marlins have five batters with an xwOBA over .315 off of lefties and since Sept. 1, they have seven hitters with an xwOBA over .340. Simply put, they should hammer Lucchesi.
Luis Arraez leaves the yard for the 3rd time in his last 6 at-bats! pic.twitter.com/HIYwb44lLR
— MLB (@MLB) September 16, 2023
The Marlins are also much better in relief and have four relievers with an xFIP under 4.00.
Mets vs. Marlins
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