Mets vs. Marlins MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Can Alcántara Bolster His Cy Young Candidacy? (Friday, June 24)

Mets vs. Marlins Odds

Sandy Alcántara is one of the Cy Young leaders in the National League for a reason. He ranks among the top of MLB in most predictive metrics and owns a 1.72 ERA. He does have a 2.59 xERA, but this still ranks in the top 8% of the league. Taijuan Walker has been solid for the New York Mets and will face off with Alcántara and the Miami Marlins on Friday evening. Walker has a 3.83 xERA, so there is a notable difference between the two. In addition, Walker ranks in the bottom 25% of the league in Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Percentage.

Miami owns a 114 wRC+ off of right-handers this month, compared to a 101 wRC+ for New York. With the better starter and some decent relief pitching, the Marlins should come out victorious.

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New York Mets: Is Luck Running Out For Walker?

Walker is a decent back-of-the-rotation starter. He just does not compare to Alcántara, especially with how lucky he has been permitting hard contact and actually getting away with it. Of course, Alcántara has a higher ERA than xERA, but it is tough to go lower than 1.72. Walker’s xERA is over a point higher than his ERA. This displays luckiness.

The Marlins have six batters with a xwOBA over .340 off of righties this month. Nick Fortes, Jazz Chisholm, Jr. and Jorge Soler are all averaging at least 90 mph off the bat, as well. This should come into play considering Walker’s Average Exit Velocity is 89.9 MPH. In addition, Walker is only striking out opponents at a 18.3% clip. This is down 4% from last season. If more Marlins are making contact, that means more balls are getting hit hard off of Walker. Expect Miami to jump on him early.

In fact, the Marlins have the rest of the lineup floating above .300 xwOBA, so they are not necessarily automatic outs at the bottom of the order.

The Mets also have a great back end of the bullpen in Edwin Díaz, but they have a similar situation in middle relief to the Marlins. It may be slightly better, but Walker will not go deep into this game. If anything, this provides the edge to the Marlins in relief usage.

Miami Marlins: Can Alcántara Continue His Dominance?

Building off of that, the Mets only have two hitters (Pete Alonso and Mark Canha) with a xwOBA over .340 off of righties in June. This is concerning coming into a game against a Cy Young contender. Even with an average fastball of 98 mph, Alcántara ranks in the 88th percentile in Average Exit Velocity. This context matters because Alonso crushes the ball. Alcántara should be able to hold Alonso in check and negate his massive power.

Now, Miami has a worse bullpen than New York (4.25 xFIP vs. 3.85 xFIP), but it is not a distinguishable difference. Even though the Marlins needed to use six relievers to finish Wednesday's game, they still have enough artillery to throw at the Mets. Alcántara has gone at least seven innings in all four starts in June, so they should be fine.

Mets-Marlins Pick

Alcántara is the better of these two starting pitchers and New York hits righties around a league-average level right now. This does not bode well for the Mets. On the contrary, expect negative regression for Walker. The Marlins have feasted on righties lately and have power throughout the order to give him and the Mets’ bullpen issues throughout this game. Take the Marlins from -120 and play them to -150.

Pick: Miami Marlins -120 | play to -150