Mets vs. Nationals MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Back the Over With Max Scherzer on the Mound? (Monday, Aug. 1)
Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Max Scherzer.
- The Washington Nationals take on the New York Mets in Monday night MLB action.
- The Mets send Max Scherzer to the mound, so we're getting a generous price on the total, as Patrick Corbin is also set to pitch.
- Check out Tony Sartori's best bet for this NL East matchup below.
Mets vs. Nationals Odds
| Mets Odds | -250 |
| Nationals Odds | +200 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
We have the first matchup of this three-game NL East series as the Washington Nationals host the New York Mets. This marks the 11th meeting between these two clubs this season and features two starters on very opposite ends of the pitching spectrum.
Will we see a low-scoring affair between these two teams, or can the hitting light up the scoreboard?
Mets Continue to Roll
The New York Mets have been on a roll recently, winning six straight games. Out of those six games, there have been nine or more total runs scored in four of them (67%).
I expect this trend to continue despite right-handed star Max Scherzer taking the mound for the Mets. Scherzer's dominance is no surprise to anyone this season, as he's 6-2 with a 2.09 ERA and 0.90 WHIP through 13 starts.
That being said, one of his poorer performances this season came against the Nationals. On April 8, Scherzer allowed three runs on three hits through six innings in a game that resulted in 10 total runs scored.
It's laughable that an outing like that is one of his poorer performances, but that speaks to Scherzer's dominance. With that said, this offense has been on fire, and the total can still go over 8.5 if Scherzer helps us out by just allowing a few runs.
Not only has this offense been tearing it up, but it's slated to face fade-worthy left-hander Patrick Corbin. Since July 1, the Mets rank 14th in the league in BA, 12th in SLG, 11th in OPS and 10th in wOBA when facing left-handed pitchers.
This Mets' roster has raked against Corbin in the past. Through 240 career plate appearances against Corbin, this team boasts a .285 BA, .480 SLG and .352 wOBA.
Don't Expect a Gem From Patrick Corbin
Like the Mets, the Nationals have been involved in many high-scoring games recently. Over their last 13 contests, there have been nine or more total runs scored in eight of them (62%).
As mentioned, Corbin is set to take the mound for Washington. In 21 starts this season, Corbin has gone 4-14 with a 6.49 ERA and 1.77 WHIP.
His metrics are just as poor as you would expect given those numbers. This season, Corbin possesses a .365 xwOBA, .291 xBA and .490 xSLG.
Even by his standards, Corbin has been in particularly awful form recently. Over his last four starts, Corbin is 0-4 with a 10.80 ERA and 2.35 WHIP.
I would be shocked if he turns the ship around against the Mets — a team that has hit him very well. Over his last six starts against New York, Corbin is 1-3 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.83 WHIP.
Though I expect the Mets to be the big contributor to this game going over the total, the Nationals should be able to provide a couple of runs against Scherzer. In 182 career plate appearances against the former Nat, this roster boasts a .269 BA, .450 SLG and .327 wOBA.
Mets-Nationals Pick
It's certainly risky going for the over when Scherzer is on the mound, but that's the reason we are getting a generous number here. Quite frankly, I would not be shocked if the Mets go over this number by themselves.
However, assuming Scherzer doesn't pitch a shutout — which is entirely possible — then a few runs from Washington could be all we need to help get us over 8.5. Washington's offense has been known to show up, and it's had some success against Scherzer.
Meanwhile, New York's offense has been on a tear recently and should tee off against the struggling Corbin.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110 · Play to -125)
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