The Boston Red Sox host the Minnesota Twins on May 2, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NESN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Twins vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Twins vs Red Sox Prediction
- Twins vs Red Sox Pick: Over 9 (+100, BetMGM)
My Twins vs Red Sox best bet is on the Over 9. Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Twins vs Red Sox Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9 +100o / -120u | -110 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -185 | 9 +100o / -120u | -110 |
Twins vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Joe Ryan (MIN) | Stat | RHP Brayan Bello (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 13-19 | W-L | 17-16 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 3.18 / 3.43 | ERA /xERA | 3.27 / 7.37 |
| 3.47 / 3.48 | FIP / xFIP | 6.33 / 4.87 |
| 0.91 | WHIP | 1.45 |
| 26.1% | K-BB% | 2.1% |
| 34.9% | GB% | 53.1% |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 106 | Location+ | 99 |
Alex Kolodziej’s Twins vs Red Sox Picks, Preview
The Twins have struggled at the plate this season, ranking 24th among MLB lineups in expected batting average and 21st in runs per game.
However, our projections believe the lineup can turn it around, especially against Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello.
The 25-year-old righty sports a 3.27 ERA through two starts. Still, he’s vastly overperforming and due for significant negative regression — his 7.37 expected ERA is backed up by a horrid 1.45 WHIP, a concerning 92% strand rate, and a measly 2.1% strikeout minus walk rate.
Bello is due to give up a few runs. Hopefully, the Twins can capitalize.
Conditions will be on their side. Fenway Park is always a hitter’s paradise, ranking second among MLB ballparks in Baseball Savant’s Park Factor (105), just behind Mile High Coors Field (111).
Fenway also ranks third in Singles Factor, which could provide the environment necessary for the Twins to break out of their slump. For comparison, Target Field — Minnesota’s home park — ranks 16th in Singles Factor.
Minnesota starting pitcher Joe Ryan has looked excellent this season, but so has the Red Sox lineup. Spearheaded by offseason signing Alex Bregman and breakouts from youngsters Wilyer Abreu and Kristian Campbell, Boston ranks seventh among MLB lineups in hitting fWAR (6.0).
Regardless, our Action PRO Model projects 9.64 runs for Friday’s matchup in Back Bay, providing plenty of value on the Over 9 (+100) available at BetMGM.
Pick: Over 9 (+100, BetMGM)
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm passing on the run line.
Over/Under
Our Action PRO Projections point toward the Over 9 in this ballgame at the hitter-friendly Fenway Park.
