The Milwaukee Brewers host the Minnesota Twins on August 7, 2026. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on BREW.
The Brewers are favored by -182 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Twins are +169 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Twins vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Twins vs Brewers Prediction
- Twins vs Brewers Pick: Shane Drohan Under 17.5 Outs (-155 or Better)
My Twins vs Brewers best bet is on Shane Drohan to record under 17.5 pitching outs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Brewers Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -136 | 8 -107o / -112u | +169 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +113 | 8 -107o / -112u | -182 |
- Twins vs Brewers moneyline: Twins +169, Brewers -182
- Twins vs Brewers over/under: 8 (-107o / -112u)
- Twins vs Brewers spread: Brewers -1.5 (+113), Twins +1.5 (-136)
Twins vs Brewers Probable Pitchers
| RHP Zebby Matthews (MIN) | Stat | LHP Shane Drohan (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-8 | W-L | 6-4 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.0 |
| 5.22/4.64 | ERA / xERA | 3.48/3.32 |
| 5.03/4.25 | FIP / xFIP | 3.03/3.66 |
| 12.6% | K-BB% | 17.9% |
| 41.5% | GB% | 40.2% |
| .282 | BABIP | .299 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 99 | Location+ | 103 |
Twins vs Brewers MLB Betting Preview
By Derek Carty
Editor's Note: This written best bet is a transcription from the latest episode of the Payoff Pitch podcast.
I initially leaned toward the Twins on the First Five Moneyline, expecting Connor Prielipp to get the nod. However, once Minnesota switched starters to Zebby Matthews, my projection model no longer saw enough value on that angle, prompting a pivot.
Instead, I am targeting Shane Drohan Under 17.5 Outs.
Drohan is a pitcher I might simply be wrong about, but I am not buying his early-season results. While he has posted roughly a 3.50 ERA so far, my projection system (THE BAT X) projected a 4.69 ERA going forward.
His Stuff+ metrics and my internal BATCAST ratings both grade his repertoire as merely average, making his current rate of striking out a batter per inning unsustainable over a larger sample size.
Beyond the regression factor, Milwaukee simply does not let him go deep into starts. He functions primarily as an 85-to-90 pitch starter (similar to Peyton Tolle).
Although Drohan has gone over 17.5 outs in about five consecutive outings, his baseline for the entire season sits closer to 50/50. Once regression hits his efficiency, his ability to work deep into games will shrink even further.
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Pick: Shane Drohan Under 17.5 Outs (-155 or Better)
