The Texas Rangers host the Minnesota Twins on September 25, 2025. First pitch from Globe Life Field is scheduled for 2:35 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MNNT.
Find my MLB betting preview and Twins vs Rangers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Twins vs Rangers Prediction
- Twins vs Rangers pick: Over 7.5
My Twins vs Rangers best bet is on the over total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Rangers Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +125 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -150 |
Twins vs Rangers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Bailey Ober (MIN) | Stat | RHP Tyler Mahle (TEX) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-9 | W-L | 6-3 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.9 |
| 5.32/4.51 | ERA /xERA | 2.20/4.37 |
| 5.03/4.78 | FIP / xFIP | 3.29/4.38 |
| 1.33 | WHIP | 1.13 |
| 14% | K-BB% | 10.4% |
| 30.2% | GB% | 40.3% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 102 | Location+ | 111 |
Tony Sartori’s Twins vs Rangers Preview
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview: Ober's Struggles Loom Large
Bailey Ober is enduring the worst season of his professional career. Across 26 starts, Ober is 5-9 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally concerning. Entering this matchup, the right-hander ranks in the 27th percentile or lower in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), strikeout rate and barrel rate.
These struggles are likely to continue against Texas, a team that has given Ober fits in the past. Through four career meetings, he owns a 7.32 ERA and 1.78 WHIP against the Rangers.
The good news for Ober is that he should receive solid run support. Tyler Mahle takes the mound for Texas, and in 25 combined plate appearances against him, this current Minnesota roster boasts a .455 batting average, .727 slugging percentage and .528 weighted on-base average (wOBA).
Texas Rangers Betting Preview: Mahle's Metrics a Red Flag
Like Ober, Mahle has posted troubling analytics this season. The Rangers’ right-hander ranks in the bottom third of the league in xERA, xBA and strikeout rate.
He has also struggled historically against Thursday’s opponent. Over the past four meetings with the Twins, Mahle owns a 7.64 ERA and 1.87 WHIP.
Following Mahle is a bullpen that’s equally concerning. This season, Texas’ relief corps ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA and expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP).
Meanwhile, this current Rangers lineup has produced a .298 batting average, .553 slugging percentage and .390 wOBA through 54 combined plate appearances against Ober. Despite their pitching woes, Texas can still win this game at the plate.
Twins vs Rangers Prediction, Betting Analysis
There should be plenty of offense in this matchup. Both starting pitchers have poor analytical profiles, and neither bullpen has been particularly reliable.
Minnesota’s bullpen ranks 25th in ERA and 24th in xERA.
At the same time, both lineups have strong historical performances against Thursday’s starters.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-105, bet365)
Moneyline
I lean toward Texas, but I don't trust Mahle.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Texas to cover, but I'm staying away for the same reason listed above.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I'm betting Over 7.5.
Twins vs Rangers Betting Trends
