MLB Best Bets Tuesday: Expert Picks & Props Today (April 9)
Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: George Kirby.
We have a loaded MLB slate on Tuesday with all 30 teams in action, which means there's betting value littered across the board.
Our MLB writers came through with three MLB best bets for Tuesday, including expert picks for an afternoon matchup between the Orioles and Red Sox, as well as two later games in Mariners vs Blue Jays and Mets vs Braves.
Read on for MLB Best Bets Tuesday — and be sure to check out tomorrow for even more expert MLB betting picks and props.
MLB Best Bets Tuesday: Expert Picks & Props Today (April 9)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from Tuesday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7:07 p.m. | ||
| 7:20 p.m. | ||
| 2:10 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
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Orioles vs. Red Sox
By D.J. James
Corbin Burnes might be the best remaining pitcher in all of baseball with seemingly everyone going on the Injured List or needing Tommy John surgery.
He and the Baltimore Orioles face off with the Boston Red Sox, who will send Brayan Bello to the mound. Bello is a solid up-and-coming arm who received a nice offseason extension.
However, despite a 4.24 ERA and 4.18 xERA in 2023, his average exit velocity was almost 90 MPH.
Yes, he keeps the ball on the ground (92nd percentile in 2023), but this Orioles team has some bats that can hit for power. The O’s had eight hitters in 2023 averaging at least 88 MPH off the bat against righties, so Bello may be in for a tough matchup.
Now, Burnes has some impressive peripherals. He held a 3.38 xERA last season with an average exit velocity of 86.4 MPH. Walks became an issue at times, but he has picked up right where he left off.
The Red Sox do have a couple of impressive hitters, but for the most part, this team is hitting better than expectations. Regression should be in the cards for Boston, especially against a pitcher of Burnes’ caliber.
Finally, Baltimore has a strong back half of the bullpen between Craig Kimbrel, Yennier Cano and Danny Coulombe. Look for these names to make an impression on this game.
Baltimore may be on the road but should be favored heavily. Take them to -160.
Pick: Orioles ML -132 (Play to -160)
Mariners vs. Blue Jays
This is a pretty good buy-low spot for George Kirby and the Mariners.
Kirby got roughed up by Cleveland in his last start, giving up eight runs, but the final stat line was a little deceiving. A lot of the hits Cleveland got were not hard hits. Only four of the 20 balls put in play were graded as hard hits by Statcast.
In fact, through two starts, Kirby has an expected ERA of just 2.41, so there's no cause for concern.
Kirby is not someone who's going to generate a high number of strikeouts with a Stuff+ mark of just 92, but he has elite command of his entire pitch arsenal and does a fantastic job of generating groundballs.
Toronto is really struggling to hit the ball out of the gates, as it has the lowest batting average in baseball with a wOBA of just .289.
More importantly, the Jays own one of the highest walk rates in the league, so if they aren't getting free bases tonight, then their offense is going to be forced to put the ball in play.
Chris Bassitt has gotten lit up in both of his starts this season and has an ERA over seven. This is coming off a year where his expected ERA climbed above four for the first time in a long time. He's also been more reliant on his sinker, which is not good news because that pitch historically has been below average by Stuff+ standards.
I have the Mariners projected as a -128 favorite, so I like the value on them at +100.
Pick: Mariners ML +100
Mets vs. Braves
By Cody Goggin
Adrian Houser isn’t exactly thought of as a strikeout pitcher, but his current total of 3.5 strikeouts tonight against Atlanta is far too low.
Last season, Houser went under this number in only five of his 21 starts, with most of those coming early in the season. He started off this year with a five-inning, three-strikeout performance against the Tigers, which isn’t exactly the most impressive.
However, Houser did put up a 108 Stuff+ in that game. He had a mark of just 83 last year, so this could either just be a small sample size issue or a sign that Houser has taken an extra step in his game.
Atlanta is league average in strikeout rate at 22.6%. This Braves lineup is one of the more stacked units in the league, but if Houser can make it deep enough in the game, he has a good chance to go over here.
You don’t have to be a huge Houser fan to think 3.5 is too low of a number for him. At plus-money, I think this line is worth a wager.
My strikeout model gives us around a 5% edge, as I project Houser for 3.8 strikeouts on average with a median of four. This isn’t a sexy pick and is far from guaranteed, but I like taking Houser to go over over 3.5 Ks tonight.
Pick: Adrian Houser Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+110 · Play to -105)
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