MLB Best Bets, Picks: Our ‘Payoff Pitch’ Predictions for Brewers vs. Twins, Diamondbacks vs. Yankees (April 2)
Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Zac Gallen of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
We're finally back to the point where we have MLB games on the schedule every single day. And having MLB games on the schedule every single day means we can also bet on baseball every day from now through October.
Tuesday's MLB slate is loaded, and our Sean Zerillo and Anthony Dabbundo got together on the "Payoff Pitch" podcast to talk about it all. They came through with two best bets, including for Brewers vs. Twins in the early afternoon window and Diamondbacks vs. Yankees in the late window.
Read on for their analysis, and find Tuesday's full "Payoff Pitch" episode below.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 4:10 p.m. | Under 8.5 | |
| 9:40 p.m. | Over 9 |
Under 8.5
4:10 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
By Sean Zerillo
Both of these teams got a day of rest yesterday, so both bullpens should be fully rested — and I like both bullpens.
I think the Brewers have the best bullpen in baseball, as I have six guys projected for a sub-4 FIP. The Twins have three relievers with a sub-4 FIP, so I give the advantage to Milwaukee. I like both pitchers in this matchup.
Louie Varland's velocity at the end of last season had gone up a couple of ticks, and I like Jakob Junis, who had sub-4 indicators across the board last year with a 3.75 ERA.
I like Junis to be effective for five innings and turn it over to that elite bullpen, and I like Varland to be effective for five innings as well.
Over 9
9:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
There are major question marks about both starters here. I don't think either pitched particularly well in their openers.
I'm especially concerned about Zac Gallen. We saw a ton of Stuff+ loss from him after a poor spring. Nestor Cortes Jr.'s cutter graded out poorly as well in his opening, and he was fortunate to grind his way out of a lot of trouble.
I'm also intrigued by Arizona's offense this year. The ball has been flying around in that park, but Gallen himself doesn't appear to be anywhere near his form from last year. I'm comfortable with this over nine runs.
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