MLB Best Bets Today | Odds, Picks for Athletics vs Mariners, Diamondbacks vs Dodgers, More (Tuesday, August 29)
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images. Pictured: Mookie Betts and Geraldo Perdomo.
Tuesday brings with it a loaded 15-game slate with all 30 teams in action under the lights tonight.
Our MLB analysts have identified four games showing value in various ways. Those games include Brewers vs. Cubs, Athletics vs. Mariners, Reds vs. Giants, and Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Tuesday, August 29.
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Game||Start Time (ET)||The Pick|
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
Brewers vs. Cubs
By Doug Ziefel
I know this is a highly juiced line, but this price is still nowhere near high enough, as this is the biggest edge on the board tonight.
Justin Steele has been phenomenal this season for the Chicago Cubs. He enters this start with a 2.80 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.
What's even more impressive is that Steele succeeds with essentially two pitches. However, tonight, he faces a divisional rival in the Milwaukee Brewers, who have seen the ball pretty well from him.
The current Brewers lineup has accumulated 93 at-bats against Steele, and when they've put the ball in play, they've gotten the better of him. Milwaukee is hitting .290 with a .419 slugging percentage off Steele.
Although they have struck out in 30.4 percent of those at-bats, but strikeouts may help our angle tonight.
While Steele is not in the upper echelon when it comes to racking up strikeouts, he's proven he can set the Brewers down. While strikeouts are fun to watch from a pitcher's perspective, they also increase pitch counts and shorten outings.
Not going deep into games has been the trend for Steele in his career, as he has recorded an out in the seventh inning just seven times in his last 48 starts.
That gives this under implied odds of -585 that he'll go under again tonight. Play to -200.
Pick: Justin Steele Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (-180)
Athletics vs. Mariners
By D.J. James
The Seattle Mariners have absolutely torched left-handed pitching in August. They boast a .973 OPS and 172 wRC+ and should continue building on that tonight against Ken Waldichuk and the Oakland Athletics.
Waldichuk owns a 6.05 ERA against a 4.99 xERA. His Barrel Rate is 8.1% with an Average Exit Velocity of 89.5 mph and a Hard Hit Rate of 42.2%. His walk rate is over 11%, too. In August, he has not improved much. He has a 4.97 ERA over 25 1/3 innings.
The Mariners have four bats above a .410 xwOBA against lefties in August. They have four more above .355. Waldichuk is in trouble.
The A's also have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. In August, they rank second-to-last in xFIP, ahead of the Colorado Rockies, with a 5.13 mark.
They only have three arms below a 4.00, so if Waldichuk struggles, they will not have an easy task with how the Mariners have hit this month.
Take the Mariners’ team total over and play it to 5 and -133.
Pick: Mariners Team Total Over 5 (+100)
Reds vs. Giants
By Kevin Rogers
It’s been a rough stretch recently for the Reds, who have dropped four of their last five games since sweeping the Angels in Anaheim last week.
In fact, the lone win for Cincinnati came in extra innings at Arizona on Saturday as the Reds erased a 4-0 deficit in an 8-7 triumph.
San Francisco capitalized off Sunday’s win over Atlanta by capturing the series opener against Cincinnati on Monday night.
The Reds have struggled in the first five innings of late, by going 0-4-1 the last five games. Cincinnati has been limited to a total of one run in this span, while getting outscored 13-1 in the first five innings since last Thursday.
Alex Cobb struggled in his last start against the Reds in late July by allowing nine hits and five runs in fewer than five innings. Cobb owns a solid 5-2-2 mark in his past nine home starts in the F5 while coming off a strong showing at Philadelphia his last time out.
Brandon Williamson has trailed through five innings only three times in 18 starts for the Reds this season. Williamson is winless in his last three starts, though he tossed six scoreless innings at Arizona in his previous trip to the mound.
San Francisco is riding a 6-2 mark in the last eight games in the first five innings when facing a left-handed starting pitcher.
Let’s back the Giants at -0.5 in the first five innings against the Reds tonight at -118 at FanDuel. Play this number to -120.
Pick: Giants F5 -0.5 (-115)
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
By Tony Sartori
On paper, there is an excellent pitching matchup between right-hander Merrill Kelly and left-hander Clayton Kershaw.
However, both pitchers' strong surface-level stats outweigh each of their underlying metrics, suggesting that regression is looming for both arms.
Let's start with Kelly, who ranks in the 47th percentile or lower in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xBA and Barrel% despite boasting a 2.97 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. This expected regression is likely to come to fruition against the Dodgers, a team he has notoriously struggled against.
Through 15 career starts against his divisional foe, Kelly is 0-10 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.61 WHIP.
Meanwhile, despite strong underlying metrics to pair with his excellent surface-level stats, Kershaw's 3.56 xERA trails his 2.52 ERA.
All we need is slight regression from each pitcher to surpass this low total of 7.5, which should not be too difficult considering the strength of each lineup. Both teams rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG and OPS.
There have now been eight or more total runs scored in six of Arizona's past nine games and in seven of the Dodgers' past 10.