MLB Best Bets Today | Odds, Picks for Dodgers vs Marlins, Diamondbacks vs Cubs, More (Thursday, September 7)
Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images. Pictured: Geraldo Perdomo and Ryne Nelson.
While the NFL takes center stage tonight, those of us who are laser-focused on baseball know there's plenty of value to be found in the MLB market tonight, too.
There are only six games on this getaway day, but our analysts have found value on three of them, including Dodgers vs. Marlins, Tigers vs. Yankees and Diamondbacks vs. Cubs.
Here are our MLB best bets from the slate on Thursday, September 7.
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
Dodgers vs. Marlins
By D.J. James
As weak as the Los Angeles Dodgers have been against left-handed pitching (by their standards), they get to face Braxton Garrett of the Miami Marlins, who is waiting for negative regression to head his way.
Garrett has a 3.86 ERA against a 4.59 xERA. His average exit velocity is 90.6 mph with a hard-hit rate of 46.1%. Yes, he hardly walks anyone at 3.8%, but his strikeout rate is about average at 23.5%.
Before the All-Star break, Garrett held a 3.70 ERA over 92 1/3 innings. Since the break, he has a 4.15 ERA over 47 2/3 innings. The regression monster is slowing showing its head, but this could be the breaking point.
In the last two weeks, the Dodgers have a 99 wRC+ and .732 OPS off of left-handed pitching. Their strikeout rate is high at 27.8%, but their walk rate is 9.7%. They are missing J.D. Martinez, but they should have enough to get by Garrett.
In that same two-week time period, the Marlins have a 96 wRC+ and .732 OPS off of righties. They have a 6% walk rate and 16.3% strikeout rate, too. The Marlins are now missing Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler, so the pop in the middle of the order is somewhat lacking.
Los Angeles will start Ryan Pepiot, who has been all right over three starts of 14 innings and a 1.29 ERA, including a five-inning outing of one-run ball against Miami.
His Pitching Run Value would be slightly above average in those limited starts, if he qualified, for what it is worth.
LA’s bullpen xFIP in the last two weeks has been 3.66 against Miami’s 4.30, so another edge goes to the Dodgers.
Take them to -145.
Pick: Dodgers ML (-120)
Tigers vs. Yankees
By Kevin Rogers
The Tigers look to avoid the sweep tonight in the Bronx against the suddenly red-hot Yankees. Detroit lost its starting pitcher Matt Manning in the first inning last night after the right-hander took a line-drive off his foot from Yankees’ slugger Giancarlo Stanton, ultimately resulting in a fracture.
Eduardo Rodríguez tries to avoid the broom for Detroit this evening as the southpaw has allowed one earned run in each of his past two road starts. Rodríguez defeated the Guardians and White Sox in this span, while racking up 13 strikeouts and pitching into the seventh inning each time.
The Tigers are riding a 4-2 record in the first five innings in Rodríguez's last six road starts, which also includes a nice underdog win at Seattle in mid-July.
The Yankees counter with another southpaw as Carlos Rodón tries to develop some consistency. Rodón yielded three hits and allowed two runs in his last outing at Houston in a 6-2 victory, but New York owns a 2-7 mark in his nine starts this season.
New York has led through five innings only once in Rodón's five home starts, while the Yankees are 0-2-1 in his three outings as a favorite of -150 or higher in the F5.
Let’s back the Tigers here in the first five innings on the run line (+0.5) and play it to -110.
Pick: Tigers F5 RL +0.5 (-106)
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs
By Doug Ziefel
Today's slate is very small, and there is not as much value on the board, especially in the prop market. However, I've found one of the biggest edges on the slate, and it's with the last pitcher you would expect.
Ryne Nelson will get the ball for the Diamondbacks as they wrap up their series tonight in Wrigley against the Cubs. Nelson comes in with a 5.47 ERA on the season, and it's easy to see why, as his Baseball Savant page looks like a cooler of cold Coors Light.
Although, as you'll see, he is being undervalued tonight as he's been able to give the Diamondbacks length despite his struggles this season. Nelson's pitching outs line is set at just 14.5, meaning he just has to get through five innings.
While he has not pitched into the fourth inning in either of his last two starts, the bigger picture points to a much longer performance tonight. Nelson has made 27 starts in his young career, and he has gone at least five innings in 20 of them.
That gives us implied odds of -285 that he will hit the five-inning mark tonight. In addition to the significant line value we have, he's also in a better matchup that anticipated as the wind in Wrigley will be blowing in heavily. This will help mitigate the Cubs pop by keep the ball in the yard, and keep Nelson in the ball game.
Play to -170