MLB Best Bets Tuesday | 4 Expert Picks for Marlins vs. Rockies & More (May 23)
Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images. Pictured: Eury Perez (Marlins)
- Our experts are diving into Tuesday's MLB slate to provide four best bets.
- Two experts agree to back the Fish tonight, but they are targeting two different bets.
- Read below to lock in those two picks and more for your MLB card.
All 30 teams are in action on Tuesday in MLB, so that means it’s time for our staff to formulate some picks to help you narrow down the betting playing field.
Below we have four best bets, including a Marlins vs. Rockies pick that two of our experts (sort of) agree on.
Dive in now and get set for a monster slate of baseball.
Tuesday MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Mets vs. Cubs
Editor’s Note: Kodai Senga’s start has been pushed to tomorrow. Tylor Megill will face the Cubs today.
Drew Smyly is cooking. His ERA and expected ERA are below 3.00, mostly thanks to a rearranged pitch mix emphasizing his curveball and sinker.
The results are a higher strikeout rate and one of the league’s best batted-ball profiles. Smyly’s improvements could be here to stay.
Meanwhile, I’m worried about New York starting pitcher Kodai Senga. The forkball is working, but the slider isn’t, and he’s walking far too many batters (13.9%). He’s simply struggling with command and control (94 Location+).
Neither team is in their preferred split, but the Cubs hit better against righties than the Mets hit against lefties.
Also, I give the Cubs the bullpen advantage. The Mets are third-to-last in reliever xFIP over the past two weeks — I don’t think that unit works well without Edwin Diaz.
I also give slight defensive and base-running advantages to the Cubbies.
So, altogether, I like the Cubbies laying short juice at home. Anything better than (-120) is good to me.
Pick: Cubs -106
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Astros vs. Brewers
By Nick Shlain
The Houston Astros’ lineup has underperformed so far this season, but they pounded the Milwaukee Brewers for 12 runs Monday.
Perhaps that’s a sign they’re coming into form, especially with the return of former MVP second baseman Jose Altuve, who was injured during this year’s World Baseball Classic.
One of my favorite bets on the slate for Tuesday is for Houston to go over its team total of 4.5 runs at -122 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Houston’s offense has been better on the road this season, as it averages 4.36 runs per game at home compared to 4.73 runs per game elsewhere this season.
The Astros will face Colin Rea tonight. Rea has a 4.93 xFIP, 19% strikeout percentage and 10% walk percentage this year. He’s allowed a .200 ISO to right-handed batters and a .189 ISO to left-handed batters this year.
Rea has just one quality start in six tries this season and has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his starts. Despite Rea’s limited major league experience (185 career innings), he’s not some top prospect, as he turns 33 on July 1.
He also has a career 5.00 ERA and a 5.52 ERA this season.
I think the Astros can score five runs today.
Pick: Astros Over 4.5 Runs (-122)
Marlins vs. Rockies
By D.J. James
Eury Pérez has been impressive in the early going of his career for the Miami Marlins. The 20-year-old owns a 2.79 ERA. His xERA is 6.06, but this is likely do with the three barrels of 23 batted balls he has allowed over two starts.
His average exit velocity is 87.9 mph, so this is likely more telling. Not to mention, he’s striking out 33.3% of hitters.
He’ll face Austin Gomber, the left-handed veteran for the Colorado Rockies, in the hitter-friendly, Coors Field.
Gomber is the polar opposite of Perez. He has a 6.70 ERA against a 6.97 xERA, so he’s been bad all around. His average exit velocity is also above 90 mph while striking out only 14.9% of batters.
Miami has torched lefties this month with a 115 wRC+ and .800 OPS.
Colorado has a .774 OPS off of righties, but its wRC+ is sub-100. It’s been below average in May and over the course of the season (84 wRC+ off of righties).
In relief, Miami has been stellar in May, with a 3.65 xFIP that ranks third in MLB. The Rockies rank 21st with a 4.53 xFIP.
Now, neither pitching staff will showcase much in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but Gomber’s expected stats and horrid results are in line, while Pérez has one of the most lively young arms in baseball.
Back Miami’s superior offense, starter and bullpen. Play it to -145 because this line is too short on the Fish.
Pick: Marlins -120
If you follow me on Twitter (@tannerstruth), you know my affinity for the Marlins. You can conservatively call me a Fish Fanatic.
So, it’s hard to contain my excitement for Perez, the next Face of the Fish.
Perez is a 6-foot-8 hulking right-handed pitcher with a triple-digit fastball (125 Stuff+ rating), a deadly changeup and two other plus-secondary pitches (curve and slider with 45%+ Whiff rates).
He also commands his whole arsenal with surprising maturity for a 20-year-old – a 7.7% walk rate ain’t half-bad.
How about this for Eury Pérez's second career start?
Check out all of the @Marlins' top prospect's strikeouts: pic.twitter.com/uypfEDuM1o
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) May 18, 2023
Perez’s ceiling is uncapped.
Meanwhile, Austin Gomber may have already hit whatever severely-capped ceiling was there.
Gomber’s plus-curveball made him an interesting prospect in St. Louis, but that pitch has gone by the wayside (+4 Run Value this season), leaving him with a low-90s fastball that grades out as one of the worst in baseball (66 Stuff+ rating).
More importantly, Gomber puts the Marlins in their preferable split. The Fish have, surprisingly, spanked southpaws this season, grading out as a top-10 lineup against the side.
Conversely, the Rockies are a bottom-10 offense against righties.
You’re probably safe taking the Marlins full-game ML (as I know my colleague D.J. did), as the Marlins’ bullpen has been much better in recent weeks. Meanwhile, the Rockies have used several high-leverage relievers over the past few days.
However, I’m looking to avoid late-game, mile-high variance at Coors and bet the perceivably bigger Eury edge.
I’ll happily bet the Fish in the first five at -150 or better.
Pick: Marlins F5 -125
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