Phillies vs. Braves Odds & Pick (Monday, August 10): Target Philadelphia’s Team Total

Phillies vs. Braves Betting Odds

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After sweeping Sunday's double header, the Braves will go for three of four against their division rivals on Monday. Atlanta trails the Marlins by a half game, so Monday's game is important with a series with Miami coming up this weekend.

The Phillies have now fallen two games below .500 and will need to turn things around in a hurry if they want to get into the playoff picture.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

Braves

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

Atlanta's offense has been decent to begin the season with a .308 wOBA and 98 wRC+. Most of the Braves' success comes against fastballs and curveball, which are Nola's main two pitches. They ranked seventh against fastballs and third against curveballs in 2019.

They've continued that success in 2019 with 7.1 weighted fastball runs and 3.2 weighted curveball runs. With their offense rolling, they should have no problem with Nola's stuff.

Braves Projected Starter

Sean Newcomb, LHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Newcomb has been really poor to begin the season, allowing 9 earned runs through his first 12.1 innings. His biggest issue so far has by far been his fastball. He's throwing it 53% of the time and has allowed a .443 wOBA to opponents.

Newcomb is predominantly a fastball pitcher, but has an elite curveball and slider as complimentary pitches. Both his curveball and slider are almost untouchable. In 2019, opponents were hitting under .200 against both of those pitches and his curveball produced a 43.3% whiff rate.

As you can see, it has some nasty break on it.

Phillies

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

Philadelphia has only played 10 games so far this season, but the Phils have been really good offensively. They rank third in MLB with a .345 wOBA and 123 wRC+.

Since it's only been 10 games, its too early to tell if this Phillies offense is legit, but they do project out well in my model at over 5.0 runs per game.

Phillies Projected Starter

Aaron Nola, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Nola has been really good to begin 2020, posting a 1.48 xFIP through his first two starts. His fastball and changeup have been almost untouchable as he's only allowed two hits on each so far.

Nola is predominately a fastball/curveball guy, but has been utilizing his changeup more in 2020. His fastball was below average last season, allowing a .376 wOBA to opponents.

It has decent run on his arm side, but sits only in the low 90s and doesn't generate a high whiff rate.

Nola's success mainly comes from curveball and changeup. His curveball almost acts like a slider with crazy lateral break, while his changeup has fantastic sinking action that move down and in on righties.

Both pitches were really successful in 2019, producing over a 30% whiff rate and holding opponents under a .270 wOBA.

Bullpens

Atlanta returned two of their best relievers Will Smith and Mark Melancon from injury this week. With Smith and Melancon in the fold, the Braves rate out as one on the best bullpens in the NL. They'll have the upper hand on Monday.

Projections and Pick

With Newcomb on the mound, I have the Phillies projected for 5.19 runs, so I think there is some value on their team total of 4.5 at -109 (DraftKings). However, I would only bet it up to -116.

Pick: Phillies Team Total Over 4.5 runs (-109)

[Bet the Phillies with a 20% profit boost at Parx]