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Thursday MLB NRFI Betting Odds, Pick: Zack Greinke’s Outstanding First-Inning Record Creates Value

Thursday MLB NRFI Betting Odds, Pick: Zack Greinke’s Outstanding First-Inning Record Creates Value article feature image
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Ed Zurga/Getty Images. Pictured: Zack Greinke.

Shayne Trail breaks down his favorite NRFI/YRFI bet of the day below, but you can follow all of his bets in the Action Network app.


Tigers vs. Royals No Runs First Inning (-110)

Matchup Tiger vs. Royals
First Pitch 7:10 p.m. ET
Books Available BetMGM

On Thursday night, we’ll ride the cold bats of two American League Central teams — and one team that is yet to achieve a YRFI in 2022.

Zack Greinke has NRFI Hall of Fame potential, which was on display on Opening Day. In 2021, the right-hander posted an outstanding 26-6 NRFI, which was paired with a perfect 15-0 record at home. He held opponents to a .222 batting average the first time through the batting order last year.

Since the 2020 season when Zack gets the ball in the first game of a series, he has a 11-1 NRFI record.

In a game with a total less than or equal to 8.5 in 2021, he was a perfect 13-0. If we take that situation back to the start of the ’20 campaign, Greinke holds an outstanding 19-2 NRFI record.

Here’s how the projected top of the Tigers lineup has fared in its career against Greinke:

  • Austin Meadows: 1-for-9 (.111)
  • Robbie Grossman: 2-for-14 (.143)
  • Jonathan Schoop: 1-for-3 (.300)
  • Javier Baez: 3-for-7 (.429)
  • Jeimer Candelario: 2-for-2 (1.000)

Baez has an injured thumb and is day-to-day, while Candelario is slumping to start the season, hitting just .143 entering Thursday. On top of this, the Tigers are a bottom-tier hitting team so far this season, hitting just .214 as a team.

Starting for Detroit is an up-and-coming NRFI great in Casey Mize. Last season, the former No. 1 overall draft pick had a 23-8 NRFI record while holding batters to a .230 average the first time through the order.

Mize started 2022 with a YRFI, but his track record still indicates first-inning value. In 2021, he held his own on the road with a 12-4 NRFI record. Going a step further, Mize was 7-2 to the NRFI when pitching on the road with a total that was less than or equal to 8.5. Also, coming off a loss, Mize is 15-3 to the good that is NRFI.

Not all Royals hitters have history in the majors against Mize, but here’s how those who do have fared:

  • Whit Merrifield: 3-for-15 (.200)
  • Andrew Benintendi: 3-for-9 (.333)
  • Carlos Santana: 1-for-13 (.077)

We have two strong right-handers with positive records toward NRFI success.

As always, six outs to glory…

Get all of Shayne Trail’s NRFI/YRFI bets instantly in The Action Network app.

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