MLB Expert Picks from the Payoff Pitch Podcast (Monday, April 1)

MLB Expert Picks from the Payoff Pitch Podcast (Monday, April 1) article feature image

Our best MLB bets for Monday come courtesy of the Payoff Pitch Podcast, which is a show where Action Network's baseball experts provide their favorite picks of the day every Monday, Tuesday and Friday.

Today's picks feature selections for Pirates vs. Nationals and Reds vs. Phillies.

Subscribe to the Payoff Pitch Podcast for episodes all season long. Listen to the latest episode and read below for our MLB expert picks for Monday, April 1.

MLB Expert Picks for Monday, April 1

GameTime (ET)Pick
4:05 p.m.Pirates ML (+100)
6:40 p.m.Phillies F5 ML + Game ML

Pirates ML +100 at Nationals

4:05 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV

By Jim Turvey

It is a little ugly — not because of the Pirates though — but because of the pitching matchup.

In terms of a "stuff-off" Marco Gonzales would never win over Mackenzie Gore, but when looking at results, they haven't been all that different.

I think this Pittsburgh team is far better than the Nationals, and although it is a small sample up to this point, their offense has been demolishing lefties. I really like that they have been platooning with a depth they haven't had in quite some time.

Washington does not have the depth of talent, and I am with Sean in terms of them being at the bottom of the league this season. I am not fully on board with the Pirates to take the division, but for this single-game matchup today, I like them.

The Pirates bullpen is better than the Nats as well.

Pick: Pirates ML (+100)

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Phillies F5 ML + Phillies ML vs. Reds

6:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV

By Sean Zerillo

I think this line is being held down because of Bryce Harper's availability and I do believe the line will tick up once he is confirmed in.

I prefer Christopher Sanchez to Andrew Abbott, who is about six points better in stuff-plus last season and his projected FIP is about a quarter of a run lower than Abbott's.

The Phillies also have the better bullpen by about 0.5 runs per game, the better offense by about 0.5 runs per game and the better defense by… you guessed it, 0.5 runs per game.

Each team is going in the opposite direction of opponents, in terms of the Phillies who just faced the Atlanta Braves and the Reds who just faced the Nationals, who I have projected for the fewest wins in baseball this year.

I like the Phillies up to -165 for the first five, and up to -160 for the full game.

Pick: Phillies F5 ML (-142) and Phillies ML (-146)

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