MLB Home Run & Total Base Props: 3 Picks for Yordan Alvarez, Matt Olson & Manny Machado

MLB Home Run & Total Base Props: 3 Picks for Yordan Alvarez, Matt Olson & Manny Machado article feature image

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Baseball betting is one of a kind. Diving into a full MLB slate is grueling each day, and sometimes, edges are nowhere to be found with a side or total.

But there are always opportunities to fade pitchers.

One of the areas I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases & home runs props.

Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there are always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are almost always plus-money, and home run props can often reach the +700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.

That leads us to my regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s.

In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.

The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot — though it's important to note the rarity of hitting that feat. Like slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.

It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player's over 1.5 HRR or TBs (.5u) and HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.

But if you're feeling confident and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers.

Today's lottery ticket comes with +7838 odds.

Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.

MLB Home Run & Total Base Props

Manny Machado (Padres)

Vs. Rockies, 4:10 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Austin Gomber (LHP)

It’s only a matter of time before Manny Machado breaks out of his slump and goes on a tear. Pinpointing that moment is difficult, but the underlying metrics have been extremely promising, even if the results aren’t.

Machado finally snapped an 0-for-18 streak yesterday but hasn't smacked a homer in nearly two weeks. However, we’ve seen a gradual rise in his hard-hit rate and fly balls. That typically equates to success — especially with a player like Machado, who has a near-11% barrel rate and a career-best 52.5% hard-hit rate on the year.

Austin Gomber takes the mound for the Rockies and is a regression candidate (3.42 ERA, 4.60 expected ERA), even with improvements across the board from last season. The issue is that despite his hard-hit rate improving in a small sample, he's still allowing plenty of barrels (career-worst 10.6% rate).

Gomber is a career 1.4 HR/9 pitcher, so the balls should fly in San Diego. He’s given up two or more home runs in eight starts (25%) and at least one in 62.5% of appearances.

Machado has struggled against southpaws this season (.138 average), but 75% of his hits have gone for extra bases. This is also the same hitter who hit .308 with a .203 isolated power (145 wRC+) against left-handed pitching last season.

I think we’ve reached the bottom of the market on Machado, and he's got a plus matchup on Wednesday.

Pick: .5u on Machado o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-125, BetMGM) | .1u on HR (+425, BetMGM)

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Matt Olson (Braves)

Vs. Cubs, 7:20 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Javier Assad (RHP)

I went on Payoff Pitch for Tuesday's slate and told everyone to buy Matt Olson in every way possible in a plus matchup against Jameson Taillon. He ended up crushing a double and home run in a blowout win.

So here I am, again, saying to buy him on Wednesday night.

Despite just five home runs and a .218 average, Olson's underlying metrics are eye-popping. He is in the top 2% of qualified hitters in hard-hit rate (57.4%) and boasts an elite 15.8% barrel rate.

Like another hitter that I’ll break down shortly, he has been extremely unlucky. Olson ranks ninth in slugging minus expected slugging, as Baseball Savant projects that his actual slugging should be over 100 points higher than it is.

Javier Assad has been a revelation for the Cubs but is a negative regression candidate (1.70 ERA, 3.15 expected ERA, 4.21  expected FIP). He's stranding a career-best 85.6% of base runners and has allowed just two home runs all season. Most projection outlets have Assad closer to 1.2 per nine innings.

Assad rarely generates whiffs — bottom 6% of pitchers — and it’s not like he’s a high-volume ground ball pitcher. His control is average, but he doesn’t limit barrels and pitches to contact. The opposition has a .244 BABIP, so it’s only a matter of time before he regresses to the mean.

This is an excellent spot to back the Atlanta bats. To be honest, I’ll likely add Ronald Acuña Jr. to my slate as well.

Assad has not given up a home run in five straight starts. Expect that to change tonight.

Pick: .5u on Olson o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-145, DraftKings) | .1u on HR (+350, FanDuel)

Yordan Alvarez (Astros)

Vs. A's, 8:10 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Aaron Brooks (RHP)

The Athletics are calling up Aaron Brooks to make his first return to MLB in two years. That last stint was short-lived, as the 34-year-old made five relief appearances and allowed at least one run in four of those starts.

Brooks is a pitch-to-contact guy. He isn’t overpowering, posting only 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings in eight Triple-A starts this year. The year prior, his ERA nearly reached five in San Diego's system.

Most projection outlets have Brooks’ ERA in the high fours, allowing 1.2 homers per nine innings. His career numbers sit closer to two, and the lack of strikeouts makes the right-hander blowup-prone.

That brings me to Yordan Alvarez, who is having a quiet start to the 2024 season.

He has just eight home runs and a .258 average despite ranking in the top 5% of all hitters in xSLG (.563). He ranks fourth among qualified hitters in slugging minus expected slugging, meaning he's wildly underperforming expected metrics in the power department. The ball is being hit hard and deep, just to the defense.

That makes sense considering his career-worst .272 BABIP. The underlying metrics are promising, which leads me to buy the lefty slugger.

I also believe this is a great spot to back the Astros' offense, which could put up monstrous numbers against Brooks.

Additionally, Mason Miller just threw two innings last night. So you can rest easy knowing that the bullpen coming in will not include one of the best arms in baseball in case we need a late hit.

Pick: .5u on Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (-115, DraftKings) | .1u on HR (+260)

DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Wednesday, May 15

  • Manny Machado
  • Matt Olson
  • Yordan Alvarez

If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $783.80

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