Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Kev has that job for Friday, July 31.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- White Sox vs Rays Over 8.5 Total Runs (-100) 1u
- Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (+125) 1u
- Mariners Moneyline (-160) 2u
Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick
Erick Fedde vs. Nick Martinez is a lopsided matchup on paper, as Martinez's ERA is almost two full runs lower than Fedde's this season. However, they have similar numbers under the hood.
- Fedde: 4.69 xERA, 4.85 xFIP, 4.79 SIERA
- Martinez: 4.32 xERA, 4.65 xFIP, 4.83 SIERA
Martinez is one of the luckiest starting pitchers in baseball this season, and Fedde is just a bad SP.
The Tampa Rays rank third in baseball against right-handed pitching (111 wRC+), while the White Sox rank 12th (104 wRC+).
This White Sox ranking was higher before Munetaka Murakami missed nearly two months due to a hamstring injury. He is now back in the lineup, and they are getting their offensive groove back.
Neither the Rays nor White Sox have hit very well in the past month, but a matchup between pitchers like today may allow them to begin a hot streak in a newly hitter-friendly Tropicana Field.
Picks: White Sox vs Rays Over 8.5 Total Runs (+104) 1u
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians Pick
Mitch Bratt is having a rough start to his MLB career. He has a 6.32 ERA with terrible peripherals and is making his fourth road start in five outings.
Fortunately, Bratt is facing one of his easiest matchups yet. The Cleveland Guardians' offense ranks fourth-worst against LHP. Several of their best batters are lefties, but they do have platoon righties on the bench.
Bratt is an odd SP prospect with incredible command and mediocre stuff. Long-term success is unlikely attainable, yet he did dominate Double-A at 21 and Triple-A at 22.
Meanwhile, Tanner Bibee takes the mound for Cleveland. Bibee's season is solid. He has a 3.89 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 125 IP. Sadly, his peripherals are all above 4.00, and closer to 4.50.
Bibee may experience some regression against a Diamondbacks' offense ranking fourth in the past two weeks (121 wRC+). Arizona designated Pavin Smith for assignment and shook up their roster to fix an ongoing issue.
The biggest problem for Arizona's offense, specifically against RHP, is their plethora of righties. Their Tim Tawa, Ryan Waldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Gabriel Moreno are typically in the lineup now, making it easier for RHP who dominate righties to attack.
Fortunately, Tanner Bibee, despite being an RHP, is somewhat worse against righties than lefties this season.
Picks: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (+125) 1u
Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Pick
Zebby Matthews's regression has been unkind lately. He has allowed 18 runs in his past four starts (19 2/3 IP), with only 13 strikeouts to counter 12 walks.
His early-season success was largely luck-driven, and now he is facing the inevitable. This regression should hold up against a full-strength Mariners offense, especially in Seattle.
Matthews has a 7.58 ERA on the road, while only posting a 2.84 ERA at home. He has a better K-BB on the road, but gets hit much harder as well. This does not bode well for Matthews against the Mariners, who rank ninth in home offense (109 wRC+).
Meanwhile, Bryce Miller is struggling in his past three starts. He has a 6.19 ERA, backed by a 4.35 xERA and 6.15 xFIP since July 9. However, he is a much better SP at home than on the road this season.
- At home: 0.95 ERA, .176 wOBA allowed, 30.4% K-BB, 2.74 xFIP
- On the road: 4.02 ERA, .325 wOBA allowed, 17.9% K-BB, 3.98 xFIP
The Mariners have exhausted their long-relief and low-leverage RP in recent games, but their top-four high-leverage RP are all available. This
Pick: Mariners Moneyline (-165) 2u
Kev's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, July 31
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- White Sox vs Rays Over 8.5 Total Runs (+104) 1u
- Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (+125) 1u
- Mariners Moneyline (-165) 2u
