We have a full 15-game slate of Major League Baseball action on Friday night, starting with Pirates vs Reds at 6:10 PM ET at Great American Ballpark and ending with Twins vs Mariners at 10:10 PM ET at T-Mobile Park.
Read on for our 4 MLB Best Bets Today for Friday, July 31.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:10 PM | |
  | 7:10 PM | |
  | 9:38 PM | |
  | 10:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Zerillo's Pirates vs Reds Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
Editor's Note: This written pick is a transcription from today's episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
We have Paul Skenes on the mound for the Pirates and Hunter Greene for the Reds.
Greene has missed some time this season, so he fell down on the 30-day rankings. I have him 18th, and I have Skenes 15th.
The numbers are pretty comparable over their rolling samples. In fact, Greene actually has some of the better peripherals of late. In his last five starts, Greene has a 3.1 expected FIP, while Skenes has 3.3.
Skenes has the slight edge in SIERA, while Greene has the edge in strikeout-to-walk rate, but it's all to say their numbers are very comparable, especially late.
Skenes has lost 200 points of spin off of his fastball since the season began. It started to come back up a little bit in his past two outings, but it's still nowhere near where it was in April and May, or even last year. A significant decrease in fastball spin rate.
I could say the same for Greene. Since his return from the IL, his fastball is also down about 80 points, but nowhere near the dramatic long-season decline that Skenes has had from start to start.
Greene is just a few starts removed from the IL stint, so it's not down nearly as significantly; that's why I'm not as concerned.
Again, the trend line of both pitchers has kind of just pushed them on the same level as one another. The rolling ranking has them within two spots of one another.
However, overall, this Reds offense actually projects the better power and patient lineup for me, and giving them the power upside in a low-scoring pitcher's duel game where we don't expect a lot of runs, certainly have to favor the team who is likelier to hit a home run.
I make the Reds between -110 to -108 here. I would bet them at even money or better.
Pick: Reds ML (+100 or Better)
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Derek Carty's Diamondbacks vs Guardians Best Bet
By Derek Carty
Mitch Bratt has put up some ugly surface-level numbers since getting called up by the Diamondbacks.
Through four Major League starts, he’s surrendered 11 earned runs and issued 11 walks over just 15.2 innings pitched. His walk game-logs read two, three, one, and five — and I'm guessing that five-walk outing last time out is precisely why this market has overadjusted to the point where we now see real value.
Here’s the thing: it’s only four starts. We cannot place too much weight on a tiny four-game sample where variance reigns supreme. If you look at Bratt’s minor-league track record, he actually demonstrated really strong command and control. Expecting significant regression in his inflated walk rate isn't just reasonable — it’s supported by the long-term data.
Furthermore, there’s a wide range of outcomes regarding how deep he even pitches into this game. In two of his big-league starts, he threw just 54 and 58 pitches, compared to 84 and 92 in the others. I’m projecting him for around 81 pitches today, which naturally caps his volume and exposure to issuing multiple free passes.
At current market prices, Mitch Bratt Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+113 at DraftKings) is a strong play, and I like it all the way down to around -145.
Pick: Mitch Bratt Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-145 or Better)
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Chris Prince's Brewers vs Angels Best Bet
By Chris Prince
We're getting a great number and a reasonable price on Shane Drohan against this strikeout-happy Angels team.
Drohan has really picked it up in the strikeout department, delivering at least six strikeouts in four of his last five starts.
The Brewers starter has a solid 24.1% K rate against righties this season, and the Angels are projected to roll out eight righties, four of whom have a K rate of at least 28% (up to as high as 37%) against LHP this season.
As a team, the Angels have the highest strikeout rate in all of baseball against LHP (25.7%).
Pick: Shane Drohan Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140 or Better)
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Tanner McGrath's Twins vs Mariners Best Bet
Our own Sean Zerillo projects some value on the Under in this matchup.
If you'd like to dive deeper into this matchup, I recommend checking out BARTOLO, our new PRO baseball betting tool giving you live access to all the data we use to project games each day.
Here's Zerillo's full projection for Twins-Mariners:
Click on the links below to see more of BARTOLO:
Pick: Under 7.5 (+100 or Better)
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