Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Saturday, August 1.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Twins/Mariners Under 8 (-118), 1.18u | Bet to 7
- Pirates -114, 1.14u | Bet to -155
- Orioles +120, 1u | Bet to -105
- Rangers (F5) -135, 2.03u | Bet to -200
- Nationals +170, 1u | Bet to +135
- Cubs +114, 1u | Bet to -105
- Red Sox +142, 1u | Bet to +115
- Red Sox/Dodgers Under 8 (-100), 0.5u | Bet through 8
- Rockies -114, 0.57u | Bet to -125
Twins @ Mariners Picks
Before digging in on any particular game, I feel the need to mention a pair of dark clouds hanging over the Saturday board.
The first is the trade deadline. We’ve seen sellers scratch pitchers from their Friday starts in a trend that could carry through the weekend and it wouldn’t be shocking to see a position player or two pulled from their lineup.
However, both of these teams appear to be buyers or at least not sellers, so I don’t think we have that particular concern here.
The second dark cloud is…well, literal dark clouds. The threat of rain to some extent or another hangs over several of Saturday’s game, including this one in Seattle.
A preliminary MySportsWeather.com forecast currently suggests a 36% chance of rain with diminishing percentages throughout, while BARTOLO suggests a chance of light rain as well.
Remember that early weather forecasts are fickle, but Seattle also has a covering (if not a full roof) to keep the rain off the field, which affects the run environment.
With the roof closed, T-Moblie Park suppresses run scoring 14% (according to Statacst), a bit less than the overall 17% suppression under all conditions. Different weather sources vary on the forecast impact, suggesting anywhere from nothing to a 10% overall run scoring boost (which I'd calculate from the overall number, not the closed roof one).
Needless to say, there is still no scenario where this park does not remain a significantly negative run environment on Saturday, even with scheduled umpire Roberto Ortiz’s additional 1.4% bump.
As for the participants, Connor Prielipp is an interesting young left-handed pitcher, who’s 4.73 ERA runs about three quarters of a run above his 3.95 SIERA and 4.04 xERA, the latter tying a 4.04 xFIP for the worst mark among his non-pitch modeling estimators. His 60.4 LOB% is just silly and an often self-correcting metric.
Pitch modeling is in the same range (4.07 Bot ERA, 102 Pitching+) and with his lowest indicator a 3.73 FIP, we can feel pretty confident that Prielipp has pitched in that range over his first 14 starts with only a one-third run gap from top to bottom.
Then we have the Mariners, who have not hit LHP this year. Saturday’s projected lineup (in which I substituted Garver for Raleigh with he short turnaround from Friday night) averages just a 92 wRC+ and .136 ISO against southpaws with even worse marks at home (75 wRC+) and over the least 30 days (82).
Despite an atrocious defense (both projected defenses have accumulated -18 FRV – Fielding Run Value), I like Prielipp’s chances of holding the Mariners in check, as he’s held opposing offenses to two runs or less in half of starts.
Behind him, an improving Minnesota bullpen with middle of the road estimators over the last 30 days (3.62 FIP, 4.36 xFIP, 4.23 SIERA) just got a bit better with the acquisition of A.J. Minter on Thursday. BARTOLO does not yet list him when ranking this the 25th best pen with a 4.29 wFIP on Friday night.
Of course, Logan Gilbert (my Cy Young pick) needs no introduction in this park. His 3.44 ERA is supported by a 21.4 K-BB%, 23.6% at home, where he also allows just a .306 xwOBA.
Another tight range of indicators from a 3.11 Bot ERA (113 Pitching+) to a 3.66 xERA tell us he’s, at the very least, what his surface results advertise him to be.
The Minnesota projected lineup has been a bit more potent with a 100 wRC+ average against RHP, despite the loss of Byron Buxton (again), but drop to averaging an 89 wRC+ on the road before we even get to the park suppression.
We already mentioned the Seattle defense above, but it appears this bullpen has straightened things out with the seventh best estimators over the last month (3.84 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, 3.43 SIERA) and is BARTOLO’s 9th ranked unit on the year.
I understand it’s an afternoon game (where T-Mobile plays 14% below average overall as well), but we don’t see a lot of 8s in this park with a pair of quality pitchers on the mound and that’s what almost every site is hanging as of this writing. It’s shaded heavily to the under and will probably drop to 7.5, but I’m fine with that number too.
I would play this to 7, but reduce to half a unit below 7.5.
Picks: Under 8 (-118), 1.18u | Bet to 7
Pirates @ Reds Picks
As everyone expected, a Friday night Skenes/Greene matchup turned into a shootout. Maybe a pair of struggling pitchers will lead to a lower scoring game.
Braxton Ashcraft has allowed 23 runs (22 earned) over his last 25.2 innings, but there are a couple of caveats here.
He’s done this with a 17.4 K-BB% that’s not too far below his 20.7% season rate (though just 8.7% against the Yankees and Cubs last two times out) and while he’s allowed eight barrels, six of them came in just two starts.
He’s also allowed a 48.1 HardHit%, while LHBs have homered seven times with a .422 wOBA against him during this stretch, but stop and think about the Cincinnati offense and try to use more than a few fingers in counting their dangerous LHBs.
There’s J.J. Bleday’s 121 wRC+ and .244 ISO against RHP this year and Elly De La Cruz’s 107, .176 plus Nathaniel Lowe’s 130, .239.
That’s not just the dangerous portion of their left-handed contingent, it’s the absolute entirety of it via BARTOLO’s projected lineup. The remaining six batters are right-handed and while they have a healthy .344 wOBA against Ashcraft during this stretch, it comes with eight strikeouts and no walks in just 35 RHBs faced.
On the season, RHBs have just a .263 wOBA and .247 xwOBA against him.
You may not consider Andrew Abbott’s 3.67 ERA over the last month struggling, but the 4.81 SIERA and 4.52 xFIP would differ. Even his .319 xwOBA allowed is nothing to write home about.
Abbott has benefited in parts from a .268 BABIP and 78.1 LOB%, which aren’t outrageous, but both a bit suspect and likely to regress. Abbott does have a career 80.3 LOB% over 530 innings, but continuing at this pace would make him the best runner strander of all time.
In fact, he has an xFIP, FIP and xERA all measuring exactly 4.77 this year without a single estimator below four and a half, so how in the world is he keeping his ERA below four?
It’s certainly not because of Saturday’s projected defense, combining for -17 FRV, 14 worse than their projected counterparts.
I have a Ashcraft slightly more than a full run ahead of Abbott, pushing his weighted estimators a bit above three and a half due to his last month of struggles, despite none of his non-pitch modeling indicators reaching that mark for the year.
The Pirates haven’t been as strong against RHP as LHP this year. The projected lineup averages a 98 wRC+ and .164 ISO against southpaws that more or less matches Cincinnati’s numbers against RHP (95, .169). They do have a 28 point superior wRC+ than the projected Reds over the last 30 days though.
Starting pitching, offense and defense are all Pittsburgh edges here and finally, they also have bullpen estimators (FIP, xFIP & SIERA) that average exactly half a run better than Cincinnati over the last 30 days through Thursday. BARTOLO ranks the Pittsburgh relievers six spots ahead of the Reds.
Picks: Pirates -114, 1.14u | Bet to -155
Phillies @ Orioles Picks
Cristopher Sanchez has a 5.16 ERA over his last eight starts and while his underlying indicators suggest a .362 BABIP is the cause, his 16.7 K-BB% is down a bit and his season hard hit rate now sits at 42.9%. RHBs are also now up to a .343 wOBA and .320 xwOBA against Sanchez this year.
Sanchez has posted a 4.41 xERA, but 3.16 xFIP during this stretch, but even weighing his more recent starts a bit more heavily, I still have him around three for the season, barely a quarter of a run worse than his 2.73 ERA.
He’s also been a bit unlucky that eight of his 10 barrels have left the park during this rough patch, but five of those were in just two starts.
I still rate Sanchez almost exactly a full run better than Shane Baz, who’s 3.98 ERA aligns almost perfectly with his weighted indicators, pitching much better over his last seven starts with a 16.4 K-BB% and just four barrels (3.4%).
However, the reasons I’ve been on the opposite side of Philly games so often this year remain the offense and defense. Once again, they appear have neither edge here.
Believe it or not, this Baltimore lineup has come alive, despite some injuries, with the projected lineup averaging a 122 wRC+ at home, 130 wRC+ against LHP and 118 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s small sample 402 wRC+ against LHP skyrockets that second number, but only three of the projected nine are below 100 and I certainly suspect Pete Alonso is better than his 100 wRC+ against lefties this year.
Tyler O’Neill and Coby Mayo both exceed a 170 wRC+ over the last month.
Meanwhile, it’s the same three guys still doing it for the Phillies with Kyle Schwarber (133 wRC+), Bryce Harper (164) and Brandon Marsh (122) the only danger to RHPs this season (nobody else above 92) and Bryan De La Cruz’s 275 wRC+ since his callup skewing the numbers for the projected Philadelphia lineup to 112 over the last 30 days.
This projected nine still average just an 85 wRC+ on the road this season.
Defensively, the Phillies remain a mess, projecting -21 FRV, 17 worse than the Orioles.
BARTOLO does have the Philadelphia bullpen 11 spots ahead of Baltimore, but the Orioles actually have the slightly better estimators over the last 30 days (4.14 FIP, 4.58 xFIP, 4.29 SIERA), while the Phillies have been sixth worst in the league (5.09 FIP, 4.36 xFIP, 3.96 SIERA), allowing 1.63 HR/9.
Picks: Orioles +120, 1u | Bet to -105
Rangers @ Astros Picks
Let’s just say I’ve never bought into Ronel Blanco. In 284 career innings, he has a 3.61 ERA with all estimators above four, due to a .236 BABIP and 79.8 LOB%.
He’s been smoked in two starts this year, allowing nine runs in 10 innings with four home runs on five barrels, while walking six of 41 batters faced with 12 strikeouts.
His contact neutral estimators are in line with career rates (4.29 SIERA, 4.33 xFIP) with a 6.82 xERA.
Perhaps more reliable in such a small sample, pitch modeling sees a 4.49 Bot ERA and 99 Pitching+.
If you want to use projections, they’re half-way between four and a half and five too (see BARTOLO below).
Jacob deGrom may not be what he once was, but his 3.67 ERA exceeds estimators that only run as high as a 3.55 xERA and mostly land a half run better than actual results.
Overall, I give deGrom more than a run and a half edge on Blanco.
The projected Houston lineup averages a 108 wRC+ at home, 102 against RHIP and 103 over the last 30 days. They don’t have a lot of LHBs, but deGrom has a very small split with batters from both sides of the plate just a bit below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA.
The projected Texas lineup averages a 115 wRC+ on the road, 105 against RHP and 122 over the last 30 days. That latter number includes BARTOLO’s first six projected batters above 125. The Texas lineup is also the deepest it’s been all season with the returns of Seager and both Langford and Carter in the lineup.
Defensively, the same projected players give Texas a 22 FRV edge and also an 11 BRR (Base Running Runs) on the bases.
Finally, the Astros do have the better bullpen and by quite a bit whether you’re using BARTOLO or last 30 day estimators.
Not that the full game is a bad play, but I’m seeing a much larger edge on the F5 number and yes, that’s not a typo below, I’m playing to win 1.5u. This seems like one the larger edges of the season.
Picks: Rangers (F5) -135, 2.03u | Bet to -200
Nationals @ Braves Picks
Miles Mikolas is far from good, but his 5.65 ERA is a bit bloated and more than a half run above weighted estimators with a 64.9 LOB% and career worst 17 HR/FB.
Maybe he’s just a launching pad now, but 23 of his 32 barrels have left the yard, creating a 5.66 FIP, but 5.23 xERA.
Pitch modeling believes he’s been a near average pitcher (4.26 Bot ERA, 97 Pitching+).
Over his last 212.1 innings, since 2024, Reynaldo Lopez has a 2.63 ERA that’s far below his 4.28 xERA and 3.83 xFIP, mostly due to an 83.3 LOB%.
With just a 12.1 K-BB% in 2026, I make his weighted estimators exactly the same as his season SIERA (4.32). Even with just a 36.4 HardHit%. Lopez’s xERA is exactly one run above his 3.64 ERA this season.
Additionally, LHBs have smoked Lopez for a .333 wOBA and .356 xwOBA, despite his surface success.
With Ronald Acuna Jr. back in the fold, the Atlanta lineup is deep and dangerous once again. However, their projected nine average a 111 wRC+ at home, 112 wRC+ (.184 ISO) against RHP and 103 wRC+ over the last 30 days that’s a bit less than Washington’s matching 111 wRC+ on the road, 107 wRC+ (.189 ISO) against RHP and superior 127 wRC+ over the last month.
The projected lineup for the Nationals also includes seven LHBs, including James Woods (170 wRC+ vs RHP), Luis Garcia Jr. (147) and C.J. Abrams (164). Only one projected Brave, Drake Baldwin (152), reaches any of those marks.
On a team level, the Braves have a much better defense, but via projected starters, it’s just a 2 FRV gap. The Nationals would also have a 9 BRR edge.
Far be it from me to trust the Washington bullpen, BARTOLO’s 29th unit against Atlanta’s 11th best one. However, last 30 day estimators are closer (Atlanta one-quarter of a run better) and that full game price is so much juicier than the F5.
Lastly, if such a large dog is too much to stomach, Washington’s 3.5 team total is also fine to -130.
Picks: Nationals +170, 1u | Bet to +135
Yankees @ Cubs Picks
Max Fried returned from the IL with a solid 57 pitch outing. He was a bit more vulnerable in his second start back with just nine pitches more.
As such, I have trouble seeing him throwing more than 75 pitches here, weather allowing because this is one of the spots where rain is expected.
Regardless of how deep he pitches into the game, it’s suffice to say Fried’s 3.23 ERA is very much aligned with my weighted indicators. His wide ranging estimators run from a 2.52 xERA to a 3.97 SIERA.
David Peterson was traded to the Cubs with the thought that his decent underlying peripherals would shine out with the best defense in the league behind him. Somehow, he’s been worse:
5.09 ERA, 5.94 xERA, 5.06 xFIP with the Cubs.
Peterson has also allowed four home runs with the Cubs, but with 25 mph winds blowing in from center, we shouldn't have to worry about that part of his game.
I have Fried nearly a run and a half better than Peterson, while both teams have very similar bullpen estimators over the last 30 days, just above four. BARTOLO has the Yankee pen seven spots ahead of Chicago, but it’s much closer than starting pitching either way and either by weather, Fried’s workload and/or Peterson’s ineffectiveness, we can expect bullpens to play a large role on Saturday.
The remaining aspects of this game (offense and defense) firmly favors the Cubs.
By projected lineups, the Cubs have a 54 FRV edge and 3 BRR one. They have a 15 point average wRC+ edge home/road, 9 points vs LHP and 42 points over the last 30 days.
With Fried not expected to go more than five innings, if that, I actually have the Cubs slightly favored here.
Picks: Cubs +114, 1u | Bet to -105
Red Sox @ Dodgers Picks
While Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a 0.6 lead on Payton Tolle in terms of ERA, the underlying numbers are much closer.
Tolle has a 19.5 K-BB% that’s 0.8 points better than Yamamoto’s 18.7%. and a 33.6 HardHit% that’s 0.7 points better than Yamamoto’s 34.3%.
Yamamoto’s 3.52 SIERA is a bit ahead of Tolle’s 3.60, but Tolle’s 2.93 xERA is a bit ahead of Yamamoto’s 3.21.
It’s very close. I separate them by less than one-tenth of a run.
Tolle also puts the Dodgers in their worse split against LHP, though the projected Dodger lineup’s average 112 wRC+ against southpaws is still 15 points above Boston’s average 97 wRC+. The visiting projected lineup has been 19 points better over the last 30 days though, while both lineups average the same home/road wRC+ (107).
Both defenses are good. Boston’s a bit better on a team level and projecting for just 2 FRV more.
So far, this is all extremely close, giving the Dodgers small edges for offense and home field and maybe even for Yamamoto.
When looking at last 30 day bullpen estimators, Boston has been the second best unit in the league (2.84 FIP, 3.41 xFIP, 3.20 SIERA), while the Dodgers have been fifth worse (5.18 FIP, 4.28 xFIP, 4.09 SIERA).
Perhaps that’s not entirely fair since the Dodgers just got Edwin Diaz back. BARTOLO gives the Dodgers a four spot and 0.16 run wFIP edge.
Still, why are the Dodgers favored by so much? Reputation?
Regardless, I expect a well pitched game on both sides with scheduled umpire Doug Eddings (-3.6%) wiping out any park and weather boost. We're double dipping in L.A.
Picks: Red Sox +142, 1u | Bet to +115, Under 8 (100), 0.5u | Bet through 8
Royals @ Rockies Picks
Luinder Avila doesn’t have a non-FIP estimator below four and a half, while Ryan Feltner’s best indicator is a 4.77 xFIP. With temps in the mid-90s and a breeze blowing out at Coors, we shouldn’t expect a pitching duel. None the less, I have Avila about half a run the superior arm here.
However, everything else points at least somewhat in the home team’s direction.
Missing Pasquantino, Witt and Garcia, the projected Kansas City lineup is averaging just an 81 wRC+ on the road, 96 against RHIP and 71 over the last month. Jac Caglianone (120) is the only one of BARTOLO’s first six Royals to reach a 100 wRC+ against RHP this year.
The numbers for the home team’s projected nine are quite a bit better, averaging a 98 wRC+ at home, 110 against RHP and 105 over the last 30 days. Aside from Willi Castro (94), Ezequiel Tovar (39) is the only other projected Rockie below a 102 wRC+ against RHP this season.
Those names above are also huge defensive absences for the Royals, who project for 17 less FRV than the Rockies.
Colorado only has the 19th best bullpen estimators in the league over the last month (4.15 FIP, 4.35 xFIP, 4.32 SIERA), but the Royals are second worst in the league (5.18 FIP, 4.74 xFIP, 4.51 SIERA). BARTOLO has both teams as bottom five units on the year.
Picks: Rockies -114, 0.57u | Bet to -125
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Saturday, August 1
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- Twins/Mariners Under 8 (-118), 1.18u | Bet to 7
- Pirates -114, 1.14u | Bet to -155
- Orioles +120, 1u | Bet to -105
- Rangers (F5) -135, 2.03u | Bet to -200
- Nationals +170, 1u | Bet to +135
- Cubs +114, 1u | Bet to -105
- Red Sox +142, 1u | Bet to +115
- Red Sox/Dodgers Under 8 (-100), 0.5u | Bet through 8
- Rockies -114, 0.57u | Bet to -125
