It's Friday and we have plenty of action with 15 scheduled games. The slate is loaded with great spots to bring you some bangers, so let's proceed.
Read on for my 5 MLB Home Run Picks Today.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
In the table below, you'll find each of our MLB staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 2:20 PM | |
| 7:05 PM | |
| 7:10 PM | |
| 7:15 PM | |
| 8:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Yankees vs. Cubs Prediction, Pick
Paul Goldschmidt
Home Run (+350)
This game has a chance of getting rained out, but if it doesn't, this is a great spot and these odds are far too high. I don't generally buy into lefty mashers, but Goldy might in fact be one.
He's been crushing LHP for years and gets a great matchup vs. Shota Imanaga, who has been crushed by righty power his whole career.
The wind is a mild concern, but it should be crossing to left field, so it shouldn't affect righties much. I have the true odds here around +300, making this a great bet.
Pick: Paul Goldschmidt Home Run (+350)
Phillies vs. Orioles Prediction, Pick
Pete Alonso
Home Run (+375)
We don't have much of a sample size of Keller in the majors, but he grades out as a well-below-average pitcher who allowed well-above-average power.
Alonso has been cold recently, but he's still one of the best power hitters in the league. I have the true odds on Harper around +320, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Pete Alonso Home Run (+375)
White Sox vs. Rays Prediction, Pick
Miguel Vargas
Home Run (+450)
This is mostly a price play for Vargas. The ballpark is a downgrade in power compared to Chicago, but the matchup is above average.
Martinez hasn't allowed a ton of power to righties this season, but he's due for some heavy negative regression and grades out as a plus matchup for righty power.
I have the true odds on Vargas around +350, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Miguel Vargas Home Run (+450)
Nationals vs. Braves Prediction, Pick
C.J. Abrams
Home Run (+400)
The spot here is good, and the odds are too high.
Elder has been a better matchup for righty power the last few seasons, but grades out as a well-above-average matchup for lefty power.
The weather is a plus for hitting today with temps around 90. Abrams has been on a tear the last few weeks, and I have the true odds around +350, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: C.J. Abrams Home Run (+400)
Royals vs. Rockies Prediction, Pick
Jac Caglianone
Home Run (+285)
The odds are a bit low today, but the spot is far too good to pass up. Jac gets a matchup vs. Sugano, who has been hammered by lefty power his entire career.
The ballpark is one of the best in the league for power, and I have the true odds around +250, making this a great EV bet.
