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Here are my favorite MLB Player Props today, including three home run props you can trade at either Kalshi or Polymarket.
MLB Player Props Today
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Royals vs. Rockies MLB Player Prop: Jac Caglianone
Despite their immense struggles in 2026, the Royals have found a future building block in Caglianone.
The sixth overall draft pick in 2024 has emerged as one of the team’s most reliable hitters, leading Kansas City in home runs (17) and ISO (.201), while ranking second in extra-base hits (36) and runs scored (47).
The 23-year-old behemoth is making noise on a national level too, as he ranks top 15 in average exit velocity (92.9 MPH) among all qualified major league hitters. In addition, Caglianone’s 55.2% hard-hit rate is the sixth-highest mark in the majors.
There are still flaws in his game, but these numbers indicate the ideal traits you want when building an elite power hitter.
Caglianone has been prone to streakiness in his young major league career — he has launched just three home runs in July after going deep a whopping nine times in June.
However, once he gets hot, opposing pitchers need to be on alert. We saw this potential in mid-June, when the 250-pound slugger blasted six home runs over the course of just five games.
Hence why it was so encouraging to watch him send a Bailey Ober slider into outer space yesterday in Minnesota. Caglianone’s first home run since July 19th was a 438-foot moonshot that left the bat at 113.7 MPH.
Could this be the start of another home run barrage for the young Kansas City slugger?
With a trip to Colorado on tap for the weekend, and a matchup against right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano on deck for tonight, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Cags send one out of Coors Field in a hurry.
Hitters have been salivating lately when they see Sugano on the hill. The 36-year-old has given up a pair of home runs in three straight starts and has been one of the more hittable arms in baseball all season. Among all qualified pitchers, Sugano owns the second-worst xBA (.314) and xSLG (.575) in 2026. Additionally, his 20 home runs allowed are the ninth-highest mark among National League arms.
Left-handed bats in particular are thriving against the veteran, slugging .593 with 14 home runs so far this season.
Look for Caglianone to add to that tally tonight in Denver.
Pick: Jac Caglianone Home Run (26c, Polymarket)
Tigers vs. Athletics MLB Player Prop: Spencer Torkelson
After three straight underwhelming starts away from home, Athletics’ pitcher Jeffrey Springs is back in Sacramento tonight against Detroit. His last start was far from encouraging, as the veteran left-hander didn’t make it out of the second inning in a loss to Minnesota.
However, it was at least the first time since May 12th that Springs didn’t allow a home run in a game.
Springs has surrendered 27 homers in 2026, the highest mark in baseball, and has allowed 28 long balls total in his two seasons pitching at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento.
With more favorable hitting weather expected tonight, Springs is certainly a candidate to serve up another dinger or two against the Tigers.
Springs has been allowing right-handed bats in particular to feast off his pitching. Righties are slugging .547 against him and have belted 21 of the 27 home runs he’s surrendered on the season.
Torkelson, one of Detroit’s premier right-handed bats, has spent most of his career beating up on left-handed pitching. He owns a career .795 OPS against lefties to go along with 30 of his 100 career home runs.
The 26-year-old Torkelson has already done some damage against Springs this season too, as he took the southpaw deep in Detroit on July 6th. It was Torkelson’s second career home run against Springs — he’s now 2-for-6 with two bombs and has a great chance to increase that total tonight.
With 20 home runs and a .213 ISO, the former first overall pick in 2020 should be considered one of Detroit’s top threats to leave the yard, especially in a matchup like this.
Pick: Spencer Torkelson Home Run
Giants vs. Padres MLB Player Prop: Manny Machado
Although it took nearly half a season for him to get his act together, Machado is finally finding his All-Star form again in 2026. Despite being known for his slow starts, many were writing off the 34-year-old altogether after he entered the month of June hitting .174 with a .620 OPS.
The last two months, however, have been a completely different story, as Machado has upped his batting average to a more respectable .214 mark to go along with a .733 OPS. Furthermore, the veteran third baseman has increased his home run total to 23, which is far and away the most among San Diego hitters.
July, in particular, has been an incredible month for Machado — he’s gone deep seven times and is hitting .293 with a .554 SLG and .931 OPS.
There’s still one more night for Machado to add to these numbers.
The Padres are spending the weekend at home and will take on the Giants tonight in a matchup against young left-hander Carson Whisenhunt.
Although the sample size is small, Whisenhunt has been susceptible to the long ball early in his career — he’s allowed nine home runs in eight career starts, and eight of them have come against right-handed bats.
Righties are crushing the 25-year-old over the course of his first two seasons in the majors, hitting .279 against him with a .576 SLG.
This is an ideal matchup for Machado, who has been known to crush southpaws for over a decade now.
Over his 15 major league seasons, Machado has 115 career home runs against left-handed pitching. So far in 2026, he has paced the Padres with 12 extra-base hits to go along with four home runs and a .215 ISO when facing southpaws.
Although left-handed bats have been stymied by Whisenhunt so far in his career, right-handed hitters are having a field day with the young southpaw. Finding a way to limit the damage against Machado tonight will be an incredibly difficult task for Whisenhunt and the Giants.
