For Monday, August 18, I'm on 3 MLB home run props: Riley Greene, Colson Montgomery and Ketel Marte.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Monday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Monday, August 18
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:40 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
| 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for August 18
Riley Greene (+500)
vs Astros (SP: RHP Spencer Arrighetti)
Riley Greene gets a decent matchup against Spencer Arrighetti, and these odds are a bit too high. Arrighetti has only allowed a career 0.93 HR/9 to lefties, but with a 42.2% fly-ball rate and a 32.4% hard-contact rate, he is due for some regression.
Greene has struggled a bit this month, but the power is there as he's hit 28 homers this season and has a 17.6% barrel rate. I have the true odds here around +425, making this a good bet.
Colson Montgomery (+550)
at Braves (SP: RHP Spencer Strider)
Spencer Strider isn't the same pitcher we've seen in the past, and he's struggled with power. Strider owns a high 1.55 HR/9 on the season vs. lefties and has given up above-average fly balls and hard contact. The weather should also be decent for hitting, with temperatures in the high-80s, good humidity, and wind slightly crossing.
Colson Montgomery has been fantastic this season, with 10 homers in 37 games and great underlying numbers. I have the true odds here around +450, making this a great bet.
Ketel Marte (+550)
vs Guardians (SP: RHP Gavin Williams)
Ketel Marte is in a good spot tonight, and these odds are far too high. Opposing pitcher Gavin Williams has been a plus matchup for lefty power this season, with a 1.2 HR/9 and good fly-ball and hard-contact numbers.
Marte has been on a tear recently, and while he only has two homers in the past five games, he had three hits in the Rockies series that missed by a foot. He's been one of the best home run hitters in the league this season, with 23 homers over 92 games and a 15.2% barrel rate (a career high). I have the true odds here around +450, making this a great bet.
