For Monday, August 4, I'm on 4 MLB home run props: Pete Alonso, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Junior Caminero and Fernando Tatis Jr.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Monday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Monday, August 4
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:10 p.m. | |
| 8:40 p.m. | |
| 9:38 p.m. | |
| 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for August 4
Pete Alonso (+350)
vs Guardians (SP: RHP Slade Cecconi)
Pete Alonso has been in good form recently and is in a great spot tonight. The matchup vs. Slade Cecconi is great, as Cecconi has high fly-ball numbers and has been hit hard by righties in his career, giving up more than a 1.60 HR/9. The weather in New York should be good, with temperatues in the mid-80s and wind blowing out at 5 mph. Also, WeatherEdge is giving this game an 11.8% increase to homers. I have the true odds here under +300, making this a great bet.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+375)
at Rockies (SP: RHP Tanner Gordon)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s odds are a bit lower than normal, but this spot is great. Opposing pitcher Tanner Gordon hasn't allowed a ton of homers to righties this season, but last season, he got absolutely crushed by righty power, giving up a 3.24 HR/9 over eight starts. Gordon grades out as a great overall matchup for righty power and Coors Field is one of the best home-run ballparks in the majors. Additionally, the weather should be great for hitting, with temperatures in the high-80s and wind blowing out at 14 mph. I have the true odds here under +300, making this a great bet.
Junior Caminero (+350)
at Angels (SP: LHP Yusei Kikuchi)
Junior Caminero gets a matchup vs. Yusei Kikuchi, which is one of the best on the board. Kikuchi started off the season well, but has fallen off recently and has been a great matchup for righty power. Kikuchi owns a 1.48 HR/9 vs. righties this season and a massive 1.62 HR/9 in his career. Caminero is one of the best power bats in the league, and I have the true odds here under +300, making this a great bet.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+500)
at Diamondbacks (SP: RHP Brandon Pfaadt)
Fernando Tatis Jr. is priced way too high given the matchup. Brandon Pfaadt has been a gas can for power this season, and while he's been better at home and better vs. righties, he's still given up 1.39 HR/9 to righties this season. Tatis is far too good of a hitter to be priced this high in a plus matchup. I have the true odds here around +400, making this a great bet.
