For Monday, May 19, I'm on four MLB home run props.
Continue below for Monday's MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Monday, May 19
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:45 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
| 10:10 p.m. | |
| 10:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for May 19
Rafael Devers (+470)
vs. Mets (SP: RHP Kodai Senga)
Rafael Devers has been white-hot since his slow start, and his underlying numbers show he’s probably due for more positive regression — he’s on pace to post career-high fly ball, hard contact and barrel rates.
The matchup against Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga isn’t bad.
Senga hasn’t allowed much power to lefties in his career, but his underlying numbers show he’s likely closer to an average matchup for lefty power hitters like Devers.
The weather isn’t great, but the odds make up for it — I make the fair odds on this home run prop closer to +400.
Brent Rooker (+450)
vs. Angels (SP: RHP Jose Soriano)
I don’t love the matchup, but the ballpark and odds make up for it.
Angels starting pitcher Jose Soriano is a well below-average matchup for righty power. Although he forces many ground balls, Brent Rooker is a fly-ball hitter with plenty of power.
The A’s ballpark is among MLB’s best for power, and temperatures are expected to be in the high-80s on Monday — the ball should be flying.
I make the fair odds on this home run prop under +400.
Max Muncy (+390)
vs. Diamondbacks (SP: RHP Brandon Pfaadt)
Max Muncy has struggled this year, but the underlying numbers are fine, and he’s got a good matchup on Monday.
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt has struggled to handle lefty power in his career, allowing 1.58 home runs per nine innings pitched to the side behind poor fly-ball and hard-contact rates allowed.
The weather is projected to be solid on Monday in Chavez Ravine, with temperatures in the mid-70s and winds blowing out around nine MPH.
I make the fair odds on this home run prop closer to +350.
Freddie Freeman (+400)
vs. Diamondbacks (SP: RHP Brandon Pfaadt)
Freddie Freeman is on a heater, with nine homers in 36 games.
He’s in a good spot to spank another on Monday.
The weather in Los Angeles is projected to be decent for hitting, with winds blowing out around nine MPH and temperatures in the mid-70s.
As mentioned, Pfaadt has struggled with lefty power in his career, and the weather in Los Angeles should be hitter-friendly.
I make the fair odds on this home run prop closer to +350.
