For Thursday, June 5, I'm on three MLB home run props: Max Kepler, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bobby Witt Jr.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Thursday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Thursday, June 5
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 3:07 p.m. | |
| 3:07 p.m. | |
| 7:45 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for June 5
Max Kepler (+600)
at Blue Jays (SP: RHP Chris Bassitt)
I haven’t had much success backing Max Kepler across the past week, but there’s value on his home run prop again on Thursday.
Blue Jays starting pitcher Chris Bassitt is a gas can against left-handed power hitters, and he’s regressed mightily after a solid start to the season.
I make the fair odds on this home run prop around +500.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+525)
vs Phillies (SP: LHP Jesus Luzardo)
Phillies starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo is a tough matchup, but he’s due for some negative regression.
He’s been a plus-matchup for right-handed power hitters in his career, allowing 1.32 home runs per nine innings pitched to the side.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hasn’t been great this season, but he’s still got power, and the underlying numbers look good (15% barrel rate).
I make the fair odds on this home run prop around +425.
Bobby Witt Jr. (+450)
at Cardinals (SP: LHP Matthew Liberatore)
Bobby Witt Jr. is in a good spot for another home run on Thursday, and the odds are much higher than they should be.
The ballpark is an upgrade for power, and the weather is expected to be hitter-friendly, with temperatures in the mid-70s and high humidity.
Cardinals starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore is a plus-matchup for right-handed power hitters, with a low strikeout rate and a 40% fly-ball rate.
I make the fair odds on this home run prop around +420.
